Another Long and Winding Road ...

[Case]

Some of you might remember last season, around January time, I started a thread listing our fixtures and our immediate rivals fixtures for the rest of the season. I'm pretty sure I left out Chelsea and City's fixtures at the time as both had recently beaten us and I thought they'd be gone (how wrong I was), so my motivation was to try to map out our route to a CL place against that of our rivals.

 

So - I've done it again with 15 League games left to play, only this time I think we all have to accept that Chelsea, particularly, and City, possibly, are out of reach, unless we can get Suarez back as a non contract player.

I've considered 5 teams as viable options for the 3rd and 4th qualifying positions for the CL, leaving out West Ham as I simply don't think they are going to last the pace.

My immediate thought, as I was typing out the fixtures by hand was that we have, by FAR, the most difficult run in. Miles harder than Arsenal and Utd for example. But I'll analyse this more closely later.

So - I'll post this spiel as an introduction, then, the thread below will have the fixtures as they currently stand (many will be rearranged due to TV / Cup progress / Postponements)

Come on you Reds - JFW.

The table

 

Chelsea 23 - 53

Man City 23 - 48

Man Utd 23 - 43

Southampton 23 - 42

-----

Arsenal 23 - 42

Tottenham 23 - 40

Liverpool 23 - 38

 

================

 

Sat 7th Feb

Tottenham v Arsenal 12.45
QPR v Southampton 15.00
Everton v Liverpool 17.30

Sun 8th Feb

West Ham v Man Utd 16.15
---------------

Tue 10th Feb

Arsenal v Leicester City 19.45
Liverpool v Tottenham 19.45

Wed 11th Feb

Man Utd v Burnley 19.45
Southampton v West Ham 19.45
----------------

Sat 21st Feb

Crystal Palace v Arsenal 15.00
Swansea v Man Utd 15.00

Sun 22nd Feb

Tottenham v West Ham 12.00
Southampton v Liverpool 16.15

---------------------------------

 

Sat 28th Feb

Man Utd v Sunderland 15.00
West Brom v Southampton 15.00

Sunday 1st Mar

Liverpool v Man City 12.00
Arsenal v Everton 14.05

Tottenham have no league match this weekend.
------------------------------

Tue 3rd Mar

Southampton v Crystal Palace 19.45

Wed 4th Mar

Newcastle v Man Utd 19.45
QPR v Arsenal 19.45
Tottenham v Swansea 19.45
Liverpool v Burnley 20.00
--------------------------

Sat 7th Mar

QPR v Tottenham 15.00 (Fa Cup weekend, but both these teams are out, so rearranged League match).
--------------------------

Sat 14th Mar

Arsenal v West Ham 15.00

Sun 15th Mar

Chelsea v Southampton 13.30
Man Utd v Tottenham 16.00

Mon 16th Mar

Swansea v Liverpool 20.00
------------------

Sat 21st Mar

Newcastle v Arsenal 15.00
Southampton v Burnley 15.00
Tottenham v Leicester 15.00

Sun 22nd Mar

Liverpool v Man Utd 13.30
--------------------

Sat 4th Apr

Arsenal v Liverpool 15.00
Burnley v Tottenham 15.00
Everton v Southampton 15.00
Man Utd v Aston Villa 15.00
---------------------

Sat 11th April

Burnley v Arsenal 15.00
Liverpool v Newcastle 15.00
Man Utd v Man City 15.00
Southampton v Hull 15.00
Tottenham v Aston Villa 15.00
---------------------

Sat 18th April

Arsenal v Sunderland
Chelsea v Man Utd
Hull v Liverpool
Newcastle v Tottenham
Stoke v Southampton
-----------------------

Sat 25th Apr

Arsenal v Chelsea
Everton v Man Utd
Southampton v Tottenham
West Brom v Liverpool
--------------------

Sat 2nd May

Hull v Arsenal
Liverpool v QPR
Man Utd v West Brom
Sunderland v Southampton
Tottenham v Man City
--------------------

 

Sat 16th May

Liverpool v Crystal Palace 15:00

Man Utd v Arsenal

Southampton v Aston Villa

Tottenham v Hull

------------------------------

Sun 24th May

Arsenal v West Brom

Everton v Tottenham

Hull v Man Utd

Man City v Southampton

Stoke v Liverpool

 

[surf]

my god, our february fixtures are as hard as they come (ok, i counted the city one in that which is march 1st)

 

and if we're still in contention after arsenal away then a CL spot should be ours, as our fixtures after that are all very winnable

Edited February 4, 2015 by surf

[Conrad]

That doesn't look good. Arsenal's run-in is so easy they could well end up getting enough points for second.

 

which means we have to finish ahead of man utd to get 4th. really can't see it, unless we go on a run similar to last year.

[muleskinner]

We could get through February unbeaten of course.

[Case]

... except I left out 9th May. Bear with me ...

[David Hodgson]

We only get top 4 if we look at fixtures like our next 3 (Everton,Spurs, S'oton) as all very winnable.

 

Last year we'd have fancied ourselves for 7 to 9 points from these 3. Need to go again. That would provide the bedrock of a serious challenge.

[Case]

 

The table

 

Chelsea 23 - 53

Man City 23 - 48

Man Utd 23 - 43

Southampton 23 - 42

-----

Arsenal 23 - 42

Tottenham 23 - 40

Liverpool 23 - 38

 

================

 

Sat 7th Feb

Tottenham v Arsenal 12.45
QPR v Southampton 15.00
Everton v Liverpool 17.30

Sun 8th Feb

West Ham v Man Utd 16.15
---------------

Tue 10th Feb

Arsenal v Leicester City 19.45
Liverpool v Tottenham 19.45

Wed 11th Feb

Man Utd v Burnley 19.45
Southampton v West Ham 19.45
----------------

Sat 21st Feb

Crystal Palace v Arsenal 15.00
Swansea v Man Utd 15.00

Sun 22nd Feb

Tottenham v West Ham 12.00
Southampton v Liverpool 16.15

---------------------------------

 

Sat 28th Feb

Man Utd v Sunderland 15.00
West Brom v Southampton 15.00

Sunday 1st Mar

Liverpool v Man City 12.00
Arsenal v Everton 14.05

Tottenham have no league match this weekend.
------------------------------

Tue 3rd Mar

Southampton v Crystal Palace 19.45

Wed 4th Mar

Newcastle v Man Utd 19.45
QPR v Arsenal 19.45
Tottenham v Swansea 19.45
Liverpool v Burnley 20.00
--------------------------

Sat 7th Mar

QPR v Tottenham 15.00 (Fa Cup weekend, but both these teams are out, so rearranged League match).
--------------------------

Sat 14th Mar

Arsenal v West Ham 15.00

Sun 15th Mar

Chelsea v Southampton 13.30
Man Utd v Tottenham 16.00

Mon 16th Mar

Swansea v Liverpool 20.00
------------------

Sat 21st Mar

Newcastle v Arsenal 15.00
Southampton v Burnley 15.00
Tottenham v Leicester 15.00

Sun 22nd Mar

Liverpool v Man Utd 13.30
--------------------

Sat 4th Apr

Arsenal v Liverpool 15.00
Burnley v Tottenham 15.00
Everton v Southampton 15.00
Man Utd v Aston Villa 15.00
---------------------

Sat 11th April

Burnley v Arsenal 15.00
Liverpool v Newcastle 15.00
Man Utd v Man City 15.00
Southampton v Hull 15.00
Tottenham v Aston Villa 15.00
---------------------

Sat 18th April

Arsenal v Sunderland
Chelsea v Man Utd
Hull v Liverpool
Newcastle v Tottenham
Stoke v Southampton
-----------------------

Sat 25th Apr

Arsenal v Chelsea
Everton v Man Utd
Southampton v Tottenham
West Brom v Liverpool
--------------------

Sat 2nd May

Hull v Arsenal
Liverpool v QPR
Man Utd v West Brom
Sunderland v Southampton
Tottenham v Man City
--------------------

 

Sat 9th May

 

Arsenal v Swansea

Chelsea v Liverpool

Crystal Palace v Man Utd

Leicester v Southampton

Stoke v Tottenham

---------------------

 

 

Sat 16th May

Liverpool v Crystal Palace 15:00

Man Utd v Arsenal

Southampton v Aston Villa

Tottenham v Hull

------------------------------

Sun 24th May

Arsenal v West Brom

Everton v Tottenham

Hull v Man Utd

Man City v Southampton

Stoke v Liverpool

my god, our february fixtures are as hard as they come (ok, i counted the city one in that which is march 1st)

 

and if we're still in contention after arsenal away then a CL spot should be ours, as our fixtures after that are all very winnable

 

Errr... except 9th May, which I left out. Ooops.

[Cobs]

Give us the title now

[Flanders]

That doesn't look good. Arsenal's run-in is so easy they could well end up getting enough points for second.

 

which means we have to finish ahead of man utd to get 4th. really can't see it, unless we go on a run similar to last year.

Without wanting to be pessimistic, the 2 points lost to Leicester looks crucial.

[Case]

We only get top 4 if we look at fixtures like our next 3 (Everton,Spurs, S'oton) as all very winnable.

 

Last year we'd have fancied ourselves for 7 to 9 points from these 3. Need to go again. That would provide the bedrock of a serious challenge.

Agree with this 100%

[Conrad]

by March 1 we'll have a much clearer idea

[blago]

Despite our recent improvement, we're nowhere near last seasons level, and our rivals are arguably stronger.

 

If we win our next three or four league games though, we will have momentum and belief that we can do it. At least with the new system, our defence is tighter, and with Sturridge back we can score the goals needed. We will need to beat United probably and I think we will need to beat Spurs also.

 

I like to be optimistic, but I'm not sure we have it in us just yet to go on a run like last year. We might have to pay the price for our wretched start.

[Swan Red]

we don't need to go on a run like last year, in fact I can't remember a run like last year

[blago]

If we can get our noses in front in the next four to six weeks and then just match their results, that would work. We do have the tougher run in though and could be out of the running come the end of March if things don't go our way.

[RP]

We're five points off 3rd place, with 45 points left to play for. We are are the form team in the league with our best striker returning from injury and our new signings looking like they are gelling in well. Even our defensive record has improved.

 

I don't understand why anyone thinks 4th is beyond our reach.

 

We have to play all the teams around us - that's a good thing!

 

It's in our hands.

[Swan Red]

I think finishing 4th is going to be tough, I'd probably go so far as to say that I imagine that we are more likely to qualify for the CL by winning the UEFA, however we are playing better and I want to see further improvement from within the squad this season.

It's in our hands but it's not just the points but the number of teams. What are the bookies quoting for a Liverpool UEFA win and CL qualification? If I wasn't so bone idle like I'd go check.

[Cobs]

fwiw I think UTd's run-in much harder than ours

[RP]

We're joint 3rd favourites for the Europa League, at 14/1.

We're 9/2 to finish in the top 4.

[blago]

Against the top defences, sometimes even your main striker will struggle to score. I'd be more confident if we started seeing goals from Lallana and Coutinho and maybe Skrtel also. They may start scoring soon though.

[Sion]

That doesn't look good. Arsenal's run-in is so easy they could well end up getting enough points for second.

 

which means we have to finish ahead of man utd to get 4th. really can't see it, unless we go on a run similar to last year.

They play Chelsea and Man Utd in their last 5. It's not that easy a run in.

 

As far as man utd go, their run in is probably the hardest I've ever seen. They need a minimum 6 point gap on the teams below them by March.

[Mike]

we don't need to go on a run like last year, in fact I can't remember a run like last year

 

We pretty much do though, we've done so badly in the first half of the year it's a massive catch up job.

[Molby]

our involvement in the cups, if we progress, is a serious problem

in fact, I think if we get to the semis of both, we won't get 4th

on the plus side, if we're in the semi of the Europa then we could get 4th that way

 

we have a bigger squad but it depends on staying injury-free in areas where we lack options

[Flanders]

our involvement in the cups, if we progress, is a serious problem

in fact, I think if we get to the semis of both, we won't get 4th

on the plus side, if we're in the semi of the Europa then we could get 4th that way

 

we have a bigger squad but it depends on staying injury-free in areas where we lack options

Basically we are reliant on Sturridge staying fit for just over 3 months. He'll be the difference in the close games.

[Swan Red]

We're joint 3rd favourites for the Europa League, at 14/1.

We're 9/2 to finish in the top 4.

 

Think there's value in the UEFA but not the league, in any case that's me corrected.

 

We pretty much do though, we've done so badly in the first half of the year it's a massive catch up job.

 

I don't think we can realistically take 48 points from the second half of this season, that would also give us 76 points which I don't think will be necessary for 4th but I take your point that the first half of the season could do for us.

[Gunga Din]

essentially we need to finish ahead of either United or Arsenal. We are 5 ahead of United buy they have to come to Anfield. beat them at home and we have 15 games to make up 2 points.