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All sorts of potentially worrying scenarios could play out here. Russia is on the brink of full-scale invasion.

 

The only peaceful way this is likely to end is in the secession of a significant part of the country. Which is still likely to leave many Ukrainians as foreigners in (what was) their own country. And yet it's hard to see what anyone can do. Nobody is going to risk conflict with Russia over this, not even Ukraine's own army. The West can do next to nothing, and Putin knows it.

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