Our Long and Winding Road .....

[Case]

I thought I'd list out the fixtures of our 'direct' rivals for the 4th CL place until the end of the season so that we can get some feel for the perceived difficulty of fixtures, not only our own but, on any given weekend/midweek schedule those of our rivals as well. I have in no WAY given up on the possibility of finishing in the top three but for two reasons, I haven't listed Arsenal, Chelsea or City's fixtures below. First, I thought it'd complicate the list a bit too much, despite the fact we're as close to Arsenal as Newcastle and secondly, I thought if we look first at the teams battling us for 4th and take each game as it comes, then we can see afterwards where we end up. So, I've listed our fixtures and those of Everton, Spurs, Utd and Newcastle. I think Southampton have now dropped off the pace a little too much, so I've left them out.

 

Fixtures against top 4 rivals are highlighted in bold, those against a current top 3 team are in bold red.

 

 

 

January

 

11/12

Stoke City - Liverpool

Everton - Norwich

Tottenham - Crystal Palace

Man Utd - Swansea City

Newcastle - Man City

 

 

18/19/20

Liverpool - Aston Villa

West Brom - Everton

Swansea City - Tottenham

Chelsea - Man Utd

West Ham - Newcastle

 

 

28/29

Liverpool - Everton

Tottenham - Man City

Man Utd - Cardiff City

Norwich - Newcastle

 

In January, our fixtures are pretty comparable in difficulty to Everton's, but only because we're at home for the derby. Their home game v Norwich is pretty much a 'gimmee', but WBA are improving of late. Our matches against Stoke City away and Villa at home could both cause some concern, but we should be looking to win both. Obviously, the derby is a massive opportunity to put some air between ourselves and Everton, but more importantly it's a statement of our intent against all the top 8 teams we still have to play at home, Utd aside.

 

Utd don't seem to have any easy games at OT anymore, so Swansea and Cardiff, both fairly resolute in defence could pick up something. Chelsea won't be as 'shy' v Utd at Stamford Bridge as they were at OT earlier in the season. You could argue Spurs are coming into form, but I'm not convinced that Adebayor can be a saviour for them. Eriksen coming back is more influential, I think. Their defence still looks shaky if teams get at them. Newcastle are outsiders. Losing to City next league weekend could hurt them a lot if we beat Stoke, but they then have two winnable aways.

 

Of the five teams, I'd list the order of difficulty of January fixtures as ... Everton, Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle, Man Utd.

 

 

February

 

1/2

West Brom - Liverpool

Everton - Aston Villa

Hull City - Tottenham

Stoke City - Man Utd

Newcastle - Sunderland

 

 

8/9

Liverpool - Arsenal

Tottenham - Everton

Man Utd - Fulham

Chelsea - Newcastle

 

 

11/12

Fulham - Liverpool

Everton - Crystal Palace

Newcastle - Tottenham

Arsenal - Man Utd

 

 

22/23

Liverpool - Swansea

Chelsea - Everton

Norwich - Tottenham

Crystal Palace - Man Utd

Newcastle - Aston Villa

 

February is when we need to kick on - Winnable aways at West Brom and an inconsistent Fulham and a home game v Swansea. The acid test is obviously the home match with Arsenal, but we're in a better place and Arsenal in a (slightly) worse place, phycologically than when we met at theirs earlier in the season, I think. That said, if they strengthen up front and in defensive midfield this window then I think they'll win the League. Everton have quite a toucgh schedule this month, straight off the back of the deby in late Jan - they have both Spurs and Chelsea away and an improving Palace at home. Utd have a straightforward schedule apart from Arsenal away. Tottenham have three aways this month and just one at home. They'd expect to win at Norwich and Hull, although these can be tough at home as we know - Their home game with Everton is on a pivotal weekend, I think - We have Arsenal that day. Barcodes have a tough schedule - an away derby at Sunderland then two tough games (Chelsea, Spurs).

 

 

Of the five teams, I'd list the order of difficulty of February fixtures as ... Man Utd, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton, Newcastle

 

 

March

 

1/2

Southampton - Liverpool

Everton - West Ham Utd

Tottenham - Cardiff City

Man Utd - Man City

Hull City - Newcastle

 

 

8/9

Liverpool - Sunderland

Newcastle - Everton

Chelsea - Tottenham

West Brom - Man Utd

 

 

15/16

Man Utd - Liverpool

Everton - Cardiff City

Tottenham - Arsenal

Fulham - Newcastle

 

 

22/23

Cardiff City - Liverpool

Everton - Swansea City

Tottenham - Southampton

West Ham - Man Utd

Newcastle - Crystal Palace

 

 

29/30

Liverpool - Tottenham

Fulham - Everton

Man Utd - Aston Villa

Southampton - Newcastle

 

We have two matches against (currently) direct rivals in March, Utd away - which, while difficult doesn't perhaps hold the fear it once did, assuming Webb or Mason are not assigned to referee it. Utd can certainly be 'got at' - we'll be up for it, they'll be in the middle of Champions League trauma - we have a real chance. Ditto the home game against Spurs - psychologically, we have an advantage over them - they'll want to put that right which MIGHT play even more into our hands if its an open game. Southampton away is always tough for us. Southampton at home has been tough for us the last couple of years - somewhat of a bogey team. We should beat Sunderland at Anfield and Cardiff away, while tough, must be an opportunity for us.

 

Everton have a VERY straightforward month in March, playing three of the current bottom 5, with only Newcastle Utd away as a potential obvious slip up. Man Utd's matches apart from us and their derby at OT are winnable .... or losable, you never can tell with Moyes Utd.

 

Tottenham have a brutal month, its by then - ending at Anfield and hopefully in bhome to Cardiff is the only one you'd say they're nailed on to win. Newcastle Utd have a middling month, with Hull and Saints away, but 2 of the current bottom 5 as well.

 

Of the five teams, I'd list the order of difficulty of March fixtures as ... Everton (easily), Man Utd, Liverpool, Newcastle, Spurs (by far)

 

 

April

5/6

West Ham - Liverpool

Everton - Arsenal

Tottenham - Sunderland

Newcastle - Man Utd

 

 

12/13

Liverpool - Man City

Sunderland - Everton

West Brom - Tottenham

Man Utd - Hull City

Stoke City - Newcastle

 

 

19/20

Norwich City - Liverpool

Everton - Manchester Utd

Tottenham - Fulham

Newcastle - Swansea City

 

26/27

Liverpool - Chelsea

Southampton - Everton

Stoke City - Tottenham

Man Utd - Norwich City

Arsenal - Newcastle

 

April. Oh, April. I'd quite like us to have a buffer over our rivals by now. We have two winnable aways if the games were played today, but by April, both of these teams will be fighting for their lives. It;'s also the 'reverse' fixtures against City and Chelsea, so I'm still a bit raw from the Mason/Webb double act.

 

All that said, Everton's matches are almost as tough this month. Saints away could be an issue, but Arsenal at home and Sunderland away will be challenging for different reasons. By the time they play Utd this could be a Europa League/Champions League 'six-pointer'. Interesting.

 

United have two home bankers (and they may need them by then) and Everton and Newcastle away. They'll have to be rocking by this stage or the mausoleum that is the Stretfor End will sound like 20,000 Vincent Tan's booreathing down Moyes' neck.

 

Spurs have two home wins nailed on and two winnable aways. We need them to be out of the race by now, I think - hopefully March will have done for them.

 

Newcastle have a toughish month too. Stoke away as well as Utd at home and Arsenal away. They'll do well to get into May with a chance of top 4.

 

Of the five teams, I'd list the order of difficulty of April fixtures as ... Spurs (easily), Man Utd, Everton, Newcastle, Liverpool

 

 

May

3/4

Crystal Palace - Liverpool

Everton - Man City

West Ham - Tottenham

Man Utd - Sunderland

Newcastle - Cardiff City

 

11

Liverpool - Newcastle Utd

Hull City - Everton

Tottenham - Aston Villa

Southampton - Man Utd

 

.... and the end of the road. Hopefully we're within a point or two (if behind!) or 7 points ahead (!!). Either way, we have two winnable fixtures if we have belief and Luis Suarez on our side. Everton have a couple of tricky ones - City might have won the League by now or may need this one to win it. Spurs have two easy fixtures - they still worry me a little. Utd have two easy fixtures as Saints will be on summer 'holiday', especially their England lads who will want to stay fit. Newcastle may have a job against Cardiff who may need the points before they come to us on the last day for a 4-3......

 

Of the five teams, I'd list the order of difficulty of May fixtures as ... Everton, Newcastle, Liverpool, Man Utd, Spurs

 

 

------------

 

Apart from these fixtures, Utd and Spurs will have European games from February onwards. Utd have three League Cup games to fit in as well, and perhaps the FA Cup if they beat City this weekend.

 

.... And I'm unconvinced that the current top 3 are in any way out of our grasp.

 

Bring it on.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Case

[Tommy Cockles]

You could have used some kind of graphic.

[smithdown]

I disagree with some of it.

 

Who do I see?

[DecidedByPoll]

Appreciate the work put in to this Case. I've sort of being doing this in my head with the fixtures from bbc sport but it's good to see it laid out. For me our season rests almost solely on avoiding injuries. We do that and your proposed wins seem pretty realistic

[redjersey]

One game at a time.

 

A+ for effort though.

[New York Red]

Very impressive mate. Good work.

 

Where do we finish up?

[Euphrates]

It's thorough, and also the kind of thing running through everyone's head all the time. Helps to see it done out.

 

One question though, some of the months it reads like you've got the difficulty going from Easy<Hard, and others Hard>Easy

[Case]

It's thorough, and also the kind of thing running through everyone's head all the time. Helps to see it done out.

 

One question though, some of the months it reads like you've got the difficulty going from Easy<Hard, and others Hard>Easy

Cheers - I'll sort this out, though it's a personal opinion.

 

NYR - Isn't my intention to predict results, so I don't know where we'll end up. I am of the 'one game at a time' mentality myself, rj, but I wanted to try to map out when our rivals are also meeting top 8 teams - we don't have tough games in isolation, our rivals do too. Sounds obvious, but sometimes we focus on only our own difficult fixture - a case in point is Newcastle v City next week when any result is, in theory, good for us as long as we can beat Stoke City. My gut feel overall is that Everton, if they avoid injuries to key players (Howard, Lukaku, Barkley, Lukaku, Barry) will push us closest. But signings for Utd, Spurs etc.. Can change things.

 

Swansea's win at OT today in the cup is interesting - It'll give them proper belief that they can win in the League there next week. We could have done without Danny's injury. If he's out it'll be Kolo and Skrtel against Stoke with Ilori probably on the bench.

[Cheesecake]

Very impressive mate. Good work.

 

Where do we finish up?

 

in the end, we win everything, surely you know this? smh.

[Sion]

One thing that is potentially concerning and falls under the 'nice problem to have' banner, is that if we finish 4th and end up in the play-off round, we would probably be unseeded because we've done nothing in Europe since 2010.

So for example this season it would have meant playing one of Lyon, Milan, Schalke or Zenit, and next season we could potentially have a list of opponents that reads Napoli, Monaco, Bilbao, Dortmund.

 

So all the more reason to aim for 3rd or higher.

[Flasher]

CL football will definitely getbin the way for top 3 too. Arsenals have a dismal Feb and March coming up, including most of their rivals plus Bayern twice.

[Case]

CL football will definitely getbin the way for top 3 too. Arsenals have a dismal Feb and March coming up, including most of their rivals plus Bayern twice.

Yep. Utd will probably get past Olympiakos but after that, the Quarter Finals, they could be under pressure. They have Newcastle away after the first leg of the Quarters, but a home tie against Hull after that. They also play us 4 days before the second leg (their home leg) of the last 16. They COULD be under pressure after the away game in Greece. Too early to say.

 

Arsenal actually have three winnable games in the Premier League in between their matches against Bayern (Sunderland, Stoke, Swansea). However, should they get past Bayern, they'll have to deal with Man City at home and away to Everton.

 

The point is that most of the top 8 (and ALL of the top 3, plus Utd and Spurs) have European games as well as League games, and some of those League games around Europe are tough.

[Case]

So - This weekend ...

 

Tomorrow ...

 

Everton - Norwich

Tottenham - Crystal Palace

Man Utd - Swansea City

 

Sunday

 

Newcastle - Man City

Stoke City - Liverpool

 

Arsenal 20 - 45

City 20 - 44

Chelsea 20 - 43

Liverpool 20 - 39

Everton 20 - 38

Spurs 20 - 37

Utd 20 - 34

New'le 20 - 33

 

Everton will win, no question. Utd (reserves) shat the bed v Swansea (reserves) last weekend in the Cup and then their first team did the same v Sunderland in midweek. Problem is with RVP and Rooney out all of Utd's players play like reserves. That said, they should have enough to beat Swansea and I think they will. Spurs 'should' beat Palace easily enough, but Pulis has got them tightened up - they recently frustrated Chelsea for example - but they DO have a mistake or two in them. Narrow win for Spurs.

 

On Sunday, Man City should beat Newcastle. We'll most likely kick off in sixth place so pressure will be on big time. It's a massive game for us. Win this and it's ON.

 

For information, Chelsea are away at Hull in the early kick off. Arsenal away to Villa on Monday night.

[Case]

This weekend ..

 

Saturday

West Ham v Newcastle

Villa v Liverpool (5.30)

 

Sunday

Swansea v Tottenham

Chelsea v Man Utd

 

Monday

WBA v Everton

 

Arsenal 21 - 48 (assuming they beat Villa tonight)

Man City 21 - 47

Chelsea 21 - 46

Liverpool 21 - 42

Everton 21 - 41

Tottenham 21 - 40

Man Utd 21 - 37

Newcastle 21 - 33

 

For nformation, Arsenal are at home to Fulham and Man City are at home to Cardiff City, both on Saturday.

 

Newcastle, unlucky v City are almost off the pace for 4th or higher now. They must beat West Ham to stay in touch, but Fat Sam will want to stick one over on Ashley and Big Andy will be back starting as well. I think West Ham will win this.

 

Obviously we need to win again, but this thread won't discuss our games. At worst we'll be 4th on Saturday night, at best .... 4th, with us just a point behind Chelsea, though almost certainly six behind Arsenal.

 

Spurs should beat a pretty fragile Swansea side on Sunday. the Welsh team seem to be running out of steam and have no solIdity in midfield. Eriksen/Dembele could have a big influence in this one.

 

The Chelsea/Mancs match is a 'no-bad-result' game for us, with a draw possibly the best outcome. anything could happen, but what probably will is a home victory. Chelsea, possibly with Matic in for Mikel will be much too strong in midfield for Utd. Chelsea's defence won't be too worried b Welbeck/Janusaz either.

 

On Monday, Everton will have too much for a free falling West Brom whose non English speaking manager won't quite have worked out how to set his team up yet. I think WBA will go down this season, in fact.

 

I hate 5.30 kick offs. nonetheless, bring it.

[Case]

Talking to meself here, but f*** it.

 

We're further ahead of Utd at the end of the weekend than at the start of it - that's something, eh?

Spurs have a piss easy last six matches. We need them to start dropping points soon. And our rag tag bunch of unfit players really MUST now beat Everton.

[Couldbe]

Need to beat Everton and beat Arsenal when Everton & Spurs play each other.

 

At some stage MUFC will concentrate on CL and FA CUP . If they win the League Cup , 2 trophies should save Moyes.

 

BTW , its a good thread.

[Red Yoda]

The Everton game is going to be huge .

[stressederic]

Need to beat Everton and beat Arsenal when Everton & Spurs play each other.

 

At some stage MUFC will concentrate on CL and FA CUP . If they win the League Cup , 2 trophies should save Moyes.

 

BTW , its a good thread.

 

They won't be concentrating on the FA Cup this season...

[Case]

Need to beat Everton and beat Arsenal when Everton & Spurs play each other.

 

At some stage MUFC will concentrate on CL and FA CUP . If they win the League Cup , 2 trophies should save Moyes.

 

BTW , its a good thread.

Thanks CB. We're effectively 7 ahead of Utd with goal difference - if we have little margin for error, think what they're feeling like.

 

Spurs only have Chelsea and us (ok and Newcastle) away now, so they are a threat. As are Everton. That said, if we were told we had 16 games left and we had to fight Everton and Spurs for 4th on a level playing field, I suspect we'd have been content enough. Nothing to fear but fear itself and all that ....

 

My worry though, even before Lucas' injury, is that Brendan was telegraphing his use of Stevie to the world, so Villa had days to plan for it and Everton have 10 days or more to plan for it. IF he plays there, of course. Utd won't concentrate too much on the FA cup though, seeing as they're not in it .....

[Zoob]

Can't believe we're level with Spurs and only 6 ahead of the Mancs.

 

Spurs next 4 are City (H), Hull (A), Everton (H) and Newcastle (A) so hopefully they'll drop a good few points (draw vs. Everton with 7 injuries and red cards each preferable). Also I absolutely refuse to accept that Sherwood can be a good manager, so hopefully his, and Adebyor's honeymoon period will come to an ugly end soon

[Couldbe]

They won't be concentrating on the FA Cup this season...

 

Stick used to beat Moyes up was that he never won anything . FA Cup and League Cup is a decent season if he pulls it off, with Europa football next season and time to rebuild gained.

[Case]

WWWHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

[rednotdead]

Really tough next 3 for us which could do to our CL chances what City and Chelsea matches did to our title hoped. Everton, Spurs (tough fixtures granted) and even United who have a handy next 3 could even be above us after Arsenal. On the flip side 3 wins and we're right back in "the conversation".

On silver lining front I'm hoping Brendan has learned from Villa that 4-2-4 won't work and Gerrard in holding role won't work as Arsenal and even Everton would rip that formation and set-up to pieces.

Need Lucas and Allen in mid for these 3.

[stressederic]

Stick used to beat Moyes up was that he never won anything . FA Cup and League Cup is a decent season if he pulls it off, with Europa football next season and time to rebuild gained.

 

It'll be a miraculous achievement if they pull it off...

[Case]

Here we go, then ...

 

Tonight

Liverpool v Everton

Man Utd v Cardiff City

Norwich City v Newcastle Utd

 

Tomorrow

Tottenham v Man City

 

 

Arsenal 21 - 51

Man City 21 - 50

Chelsea 21 - 49

Liverpool 21 - 43

Tottenham 21 - 43

Everton 21 - 42

Man Utd 21 - 37

Newcastle 21 - 36

 

Obviously, our game tonight is pivotal. Everton have some tough February fixtures, so it's more important than words for us to try and put some daylight between us and the Blues. Tomorrow night's game at WHL is almost as important to us, in context. We need to know how Spurs recent improvement can be measured, and what better way than them playing against the only team to hammer them more than we did. City were much better at the weekend in the Cup once Jovetic came on, which is scary as he's barely played at all. I have a sneaking feeling though that Spurs could nick this one by the odd goal in three.

 

Tonight, Mata and Van Persie start for Utd, with Rooney on the bench. If they don't beat the bottom side (Cardiff City) tonight, I think they're screwed for good - the pressure will blow Moyes eyes out. They will win though - by loads. Newcastle, if they sell Cabaye (and he's left out of the side tonight), will be pretty much out of it - 8 points off fourth place before tonight's game - Norwich could well do them.

 

Good luck everyone -Lets hope for good things. Then bring on February.