Italy's general election

matty · February 26, 2013

Bizarre in many ways, the Italian general election has left things, as usual, very similar but completely different to how they were before.

The most interesting development is the rise of Beppe Grillo, a comedian who for a couple of years has been developing his 5 Star Movement (unrelated to the oddball 80s pop outfit) online and in mass public meetings. This is basically an anti-politics political movement, aimed at wholesale reform of the political system, but with no programme for government at all beyond getting rid of the old guard, and changing Parliament, in some fairly vague ways.

They achieved 25% of the vote, more or less - an astounding result considering they didn't exist until a couple of years ago. Now they seem to hold the balance of power.

Meanwhile the two major coalitions - centre-left and centre-right, were virtually tied. From Berlusconi's point of view, that is a massive achievement.

This time last year, they sat at around 12% in the polls, and at the start of the campaign, were still around 19%. Now they got about 30% of the vote. And this despite the Lega Nord separatists who are their coalition partners being mired in scandal.

How did it happen - well, Berlusconi demonstrated again where he gets it from. Aside from the fact that his media empire presents a wholly distorted view to the public, this was a masterclass in his modus operandi. The opposition plays into his hands - everyone hates Berlusconi, and they let it show. The opposition parties make him the focus of their hatred, which gives him publicity. The political programmes give him huge exposure. He plays the victim - victim of the media, of the judiciary, of everything, and he revels in it. It gives him life. The one thing that would truly destroy Berlusconi is if he were to be ignored. But nobody ignores him. He makes wilder claims, more improbably promises, and he gets the attention on him. Then he lays it on with a trowl - plots and conspiracies against him; small-minded populism and xenophobia; tax cuts and giveaways in the face of horrendous public finances.

The centre-left meanwhile had a pretty poor campaign - Bersani is old and comes across as a relic of a bygone age. The left passed up the chance to move to a new generation of politician, and they are paying the price through Grillo's success. In many regions of Italy, Grillo took votes that the left would have won, and given them a big majority in Parliament. Even the exit polls had them 7-10% ahead yesterday, but they ended up with less than 1% more votes than Berlusconi.

Mario Monti did less well than expected - about 10%, and has been rendered almost insignificant by Grillo.

The other factor was the weather. It's been freezing across Italy - there's been snow in Calabria, a rare event indeed. Turnout was down 6% on 2008. Based on what we know about elections and weather, that will have helped the centre-right. It's unlikely the next elections will be in such bad weather.

So what happens next? The lower house is in the centre-left's hands thanks to a system which gives the biggest party an automatic majority. The upper house is deadlocked. Nobody can govern without a majority in both houses. And nobody can get a majority in the Senate without Grillo. He is exactly where he wanted to be - powerful and beholden to nobody.

By mid-April, Parliament must choose a new President of the Republic. Whether a new government can form before that is in doubt. My money is on the centre-left attempting to agree an informal short-term pact to agree constitutional and political changes with Grillo. But Grillo has shown no signs of compromise at all so far in his political career. But Grillo has his best chance now to actually do what he says he wants to do. Will he accept some compromise to get change now? Where will he stop?

I reckon the left will drag things out long enough to get new elections in June or September. They need a new electoral law and they need to elect a sensible President. They also need to learn the lesson and stop making Berlusconi the focal point of their politics. As usual, nothing is certain - and intrigue and plotting will flourish. And the country will continue to go to the dogs, economically.

Sir Tokyo Sexwale · February 26, 2013

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