behind target...

[Chewie]

so far we've 19 points from 11 games... at this pace that's 65/66 points for the season... (had we won today that'd been 21 from 11 which is aon target of 72 points....

 

in the pre-season one was heard to roar a little at those who only saw doom and gloom on the horizon... at that time the points were made that...

 

if kenny hits his career points average we should hit 70 this season

that based on the sort of form we saw at the back end of last season we should hit 70 this season

that the players signed should be better than those that left meaning we should as a minimum expect 70 points

that if the players signed come in and get going then we shoulod be aiming for 75 points

that the players being brought in should be familiar with the league and therefore we shouldn't have to bed too many in

that all of the above is reasonable and should not be dismissed as wide-eyed dewy optimism if things don't plan out

that it will not be unreasonable to review the season and ask why we did not meet the above targets if this proves to be the case...

 

all of that held true in the summer and all of it holds true now...

 

so far we really could go either way (which is better than last year when the only way is up, but not better than if we were off to a flyer and then perhaps unsurprisingly begin to fade). We are running out of margin for error and we have yet to establish a real sense of momentum in our play and in our results. We have looked very good at times and yet have not scored. If every keeper apparently plays a blinder against us then maybe the trend suggests our finishing is not what it should be. Of the players signed since last January only Suarez and Enrique can be said to be unmitigated successes. Downing is lapsing into the player we thought he was when he played for Boro and Villa and not the player we hoped we was when he signed for us. Adam, has looked ok but actually will never really look better than he is now. I love Lucas (not Lucy) and he should be the shield in the middle...but Adam alongside has yet to truly convince. Henderson looks like a kid with good feet and ability but may lack the mentality to really impose himself on games as a proper Liverpool player. You can see a player in there but we're still waiting for him to shine. Andy, well this is the biggest conundrum of them all. You cannot help but feel that at the sort of money we paid there would have been a few strikers out there capable of weighing in with a greater goal return. So, there is much room for improvement on the new players in. We may or may not see a fit Gerrard playing week in week out so that factor, which was hoped for in the summer, is very variable right now.

 

As for the King... well, let's hope he can steer us through. Just before the game today Gillespie was talking about how everyone was expecting us to give someone a good hiding. We are also undefeated in 8 now... but that cutting edge win at all costs mentality seems to be lacking. It will be up to Kenny and Steve C to get this team believing in themselves. There are players there who perhaps deserve some more gametime - Jay and Maxi both did excellent last season and we shouldn't fear what they could bring compared to what we are seeing. Suarez and Kuyt seem to link better than Andy and Suarez and as much as the big man needs games we need points more. Right now we look like a team that is trying to gel, which is not surprising given the number of players signed, but we'd need to or this year we'll be looking at around the mid-60s mark and that would not be good enough. There is still enough about us to suggest we can do better than this, but we'd need to because Spurs and Arsenal are very much in this and Newcastle have had the sort of flyer referred to above that we were hoping we would benefit from. The next few weeks could be season defining... my memory of the 90s was of too many bleak Novembers when we just put ourselves too far behind for the reast of the season to really matter. Let's hope that pattern is not repeated but the push from now to the New Year is massive...

 

for all the reasons set out in the summer above it is still on and they still hold true... but precisely because it was right to set our expectations at those sort of levels it is also right at this stage to admit we ain't were we should be by now... we have barely set a pace that is on target for those 70 points and we need to pick it up...

 

C'mon Kenny... help a Wookie roar!!!

 

Chewie

[Falconhoof]

I was just wondering whether to start a thread along the lines of 'someone please offer some reassurance'

This isn't the thread, but it does set out where we are, rather than focusing on individual players.

 

We desperately need to go on a run.

I'm concerned but there must be a way for us to get more from the players we have.

[Logic]

This gives me the chance to post my ultra-nerdy tracking of our progress.

 

 

It's impossible to take the points average and extrapolate that over the whole season. One needs to take into effect how differently the games are ordered each season.

 

 

p.s. there might still be some errors in the spreadsheet I use but wtf... it's nerdy enough for a football fan isn't it?

Edited November 5, 2011 by Logic

[Chewie]

 

It's impossible to take the points average and extrapolate that over the whole season. One needs to take into effect how differently the games are ordered each season.

 

I agree with this but actually our spread of fixtures has been quite even in these 11 games. We've played 3 'top 6' teams, the derby, 2 promoted teams and other mid table teams. We can look to a realistic PTA total for the CL (70 is a good target) and to the managers record over many games, and our own form from january - may, add in our new signings and ask - what is our target for this season? Points wise we are behind target but not damagingly so. We have 8 games to the half way stage and we need 16 points from those. That's doable, 5 wins 2 losses, 1 draw. But these draws are killing us. Victories over Norwich, Swansea and Sunderland would have us right up there... We need to rediscover the scoring goals for fun streak last march - April. In that period we had Suarez with a mobile 3 behind him (kuyt, maxi, mereiles) and Jay and Lucas anchoring... Maybe that's what we need just to get motoring... I dunno!!

 

Anyway, keep the faith with the king, 5 wins and a draw from the next 8 and we're back on track:-)

 

Chewie

[Davvo]

It's impossible to take the points average and extrapolate that over the whole season. One needs to take into effect how differently the games are ordered each season.

 

 

p.s. there might still be some errors in the spreadsheet I use but wtf... it's nerdy enough for a football fan isn't it?

 

Love nerdy stats, thanks

 

What data is the Historical Cumulative based on by the way ? How far are you going back there ?

 

I ask because we seem to have spent the season flirting with this historical average, and someway ahead of last year's debacle, which offers some sense of optimism.

Edited November 5, 2011 by Davvo

[Logic]

Love nerdy stats, thanks

 

What data is the Historical Cumulative based on by the way ? How far are you going back there ?

 

I ask because we seem to have spent the season flirting with this historical average, and someway ahead of last year's debacle, which offers some sense of optimism.

I decided to use 5 seasons back. And "ranked" the promoted teams so one could compare the 1st promoted team one year to the next if you know what I mean.

 

It also (IMHO) makes it more "accurate" as teams like ManCity and others have made great leaps lately so results from pre-financial doping times aren't as accurate as the results post-financial doping times.

 

Yup, this seems to date to be some sort of average season which should mean us in the CL/EL next season. We're heading towards 71 points according to my system and that should be enough for a CL qualification. But that also means we need to stay at around 2pts per game for the next ten matches.

 

For some odd reason I really like doing stats/analysis like this... wonder if lfc need a manufacturing improvement or QC guy!

[Crazy Horse]

wonder if lfc need a manufacturing improvement or QC guy!

 

A QC guy for the quality of football would be great.

[cocknose]

Giving Kenny the job was a mistake, love him as much as we do.

[Falconhoof]

can always rely on you to be a c***

[Zoob]

The frustrating thing is that we are actually creating a lot of chances, but we're completely lacking ruthlessness, and we're also short of some luck, not just in terms of hitting the woodwork - we're regularly coming up against keepers who make fantastic saves against us, and then look like park keepers the next game. Added to that, the stat someone showed in terms of how few chances we've conceded, but the high proportion of goals that have resulted from them.

 

Football has such fine margins. There are times in the past when we've gone on runs of winning games without playing particularly well or creating many chances. Today we didn't play well, but this season we've played well in many games without winning them.

Edited November 6, 2011 by Zoob

[Nebraska Red]

A QC guy for the quality of football would be great.

 

 

he'd have had little to do based on today's performance.

 

The frustrating thing is that we are actually creating a lot of chances, but we're completely lacking ruthlessness, and we're also short of some luck, not just in terms of hitting the woodwork - we're regularly coming up against keepers who make fantastic saves against us, and then look like park keepers the next game. Added to that, the stat someone showed in terms of how few chances we've conceded, but the high proportion of goals that have resulted from them.

 

Football has such fine margins. There are times in the past when we've gone on runs of winning games without playing particularly well or creating many chances. Today we didn't play well, but this season we've played well in many games without winning them.

 

 

seems to me that we don't have that killer instinct, with the exception of Suarez, but even he is being forced out of the box as he has to come looking for the ball 40 yards from goal..

 

how many times do we play the easiest pass sideways or backwards rather than try to put the ball into a dangerous spot.?

 

our build up is ponderous and breakaways seem to be non existent.

 

we still get all 11 back even the other team leaves 2 or 3 back to defend, why?

[Zoob]

he'd have had little to do based on today's performance.

 

 

 

 

seems to me that we don't have that killer instinct, with the exception of Suarez, but even he is being forced out of the box as he has to come looking for the ball 40 yards from goal..

 

how many times do we play the easiest pass sideways or backwards rather than try to put the ball into a dangerous spot.?

 

our build up is ponderous and breakaways seem to be non existent.

 

we still get all 11 back even the other team leaves 2 or 3 back to defend, why?

 

I think the Swansea game was different from the other points we've dropped at home. We still had chances to win, but even Dalglish admitted our play was poor and we didn't pass and move.

 

The 11 back for corners is frustrating, although I don't think many teams leave 3 players up.

[cocknose]

can always rely on you to be a c***

Ok, sorry. Its great, we are great, £100 million spent and doing much better than last season, my mistake.

 

Kenny is a legend, he is and always will be my hero, he did a fantastic job of getting us back on our feet and restoring harmony to the club, that was the time to bring in a top young coach. We wont finish top 4 this year, Arsenal arent as crap as we thought, Spurs look assured, Chelsea will always get top 4. Not only should we have looked elsewhere for the long term manager role but Enrique and Suraez apart, our purchases have been really poor, so much money wasted.

 

No need for the c*** stuff.

[Zoob]

Ok, sorry. Its great, we are great, £100 million spent and doing much better than last season, my mistake.

 

Kenny is a legend, he is and always will be my hero, he did a fantastic job of getting us back on our feet and restoring harmony to the club, that was the time to bring in a top young coach. We wont finish top 4 this year, Arsenal arent as crap as we thought, Spurs look assured, Chelsea will always get top 4. Not only should we have looked elsewhere for the long term manager role but Enrique and Suraez apart, our purchases have been really poor, so much money wasted.

 

No need for the c*** stuff.

 

Just curious - who would this top young coach have been?

[cocknose]

Klopp

[Logic]

A QC guy for the quality of football would be great.

Haha, that'd be the dream job for me!

 

he'd have had little to do based on today's performance.

I'm sure I could find data that would show:

 

1. Downing is most effective getting the ball in the transition-phase and running fast and wide at the defence while ending that run with a crosss (if it's on) or lay it back to a midfielder high up the field. [That didn't happened way to seldom IMO].

 

2. Henderson is most effective when played as a right sided carrilero with licence to a) go wide to get an early cross in or b) move forward to support wide and advanced players in possession. He's a complete waste of space on the right in a any version of 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1.

 

Both of these should be solved if we move away from the current 4-4-1-1 (d) that becomes a 4-2-3-1 (a) and play a Chelsea/Mourinho (spit) style 4-3-3.

 

Give me access to the ProZone data and I'll prove it.

[Case]

Klopp

If we'd been sixth now with Klopp in charge do you think we'd be patting him on the back?

 

Anyway, getting (slightly) back on point ...

 

I don't think the forwards are the issue - our midfield seems to be on a go-slow to often - no or little 'urgency' - last seasons last third was ALL positive, clinical urgency. Maybe we're too good cop-good cop behind the scenes. Perhaps Sammy was the bad cop, the motivator, the 'get into these' and this is what is partly missing IMO.

 

Also, the sale of Raul, coupled with Stevies injury and the lack of using Maxi means we lack 'energetic guile'.

 

On the slightly positive side, we're trying to embed SIX key players into the team in just a few months. Too early to be gloomy yet. Defence looks much better too. I was wrong about Carra - he should now be backup. Having said THAT we've played two small teams without him, so ....

[Logic]

Defence looks much better too. I was wrong about Carra - he should now be backup. Having said THAT we've played two small teams without him, so ....

IMHO he should have got the "Hyppia" role a couple of seasons ago. That is, play him against the top 6-10 teams but rest him against the lower rated teams that we play against.

[Beardsley]

If we'd been sixth now with Klopp in charge do you think we'd be patting him on the back?

 

Anyway, getting (slightly) back on point ...

 

I don't think the forwards are the issue - our midfield seems to be on a go-slow to often - no or little 'urgency' - last seasons last third was ALL positive, clinical urgency. Maybe we're too good cop-good cop behind the scenes. Perhaps Sammy was the bad cop, the motivator, the 'get into these' and this is what is partly missing IMO.

 

Also, the sale of Raul, coupled with Stevies injury and the lack of using Maxi means we lack 'energetic guile'.

 

On the slightly positive side, we're trying to embed SIX key players into the team in just a few months. Too early to be gloomy yet. Defence looks much better too. I was wrong about Carra - he should now be backup. Having said THAT we've played two small teams without him, so ....

 

 

 

Completely agree. Think the midfield let us down bad yesterday, by either being too deep on defense, giving up acres of space in front of them, and by not going into the box on attack which left Suarez the only receiver of Carroll's knockdowns.

[Earl Hafler]

 

I'm concerned but there must be a way for us to get more from the players we have.

 

Change in formation and better utilisation of the squad for a start.

[_00_deathscar]

The fact that we need more match winners is one issue.

 

The other is that we need more 'scruff of the neck' type players. Even when we didn't have more than 2-3 'matchwinners' under Rafa, we still had players who could take the game by the scruff of the neck or inject energy (or control it accordingly) - Alonso and Mascherano, for two (in addition to Gerrard/Torres as the match winners) - and in 08/09, Benayoun at the latter end.

 

At the moment, we're saying of too many players that "X is not playing well because he is not getting the service from Y" - e.g. Carroll's not playing well because he's not getting good service from Downing...Downing's stats would be different if Kuyt/Carroll had tucked them away...Charlie Adam isn't playing well because the wingers aren't playing well.

 

These players need to step up to the plate or be replaced.

 

Someone mentioned here (or on RAWK) that no matter how poorly things may be going for Kuyt and Suarez, they still demand the ball. Can the same be said currently of Downing, Carroll and Henderson? Or do they hide? Usual question marks over Charlie Adam.

[jimbolala]

I thought the attitude of some of the players was poor. Henderson looked slow from the start of the game. Adam looked like he couldnt be arsed. Carrol is a strange one, we hit balls at him, them cant be bothered to follow it up with support. Just hoping today was the rude awaking they needef

[Earl Hafler]

 

 

At the moment, we're saying of too many players that "X is not playing well because he is not getting the service from Y" - e.g. Carroll's not playing well because he's not getting good service from Downing...Downing's stats would be different if Kuyt/Carroll had tucked them away...Charlie Adam isn't playing well because the wingers aren't playing well.

 

These players need to step up to the plate or be replaced.

 

It's not just Downing with Carroll, it's the whole side. We've struggled with the big man, little man forward line and how to get the best out of both players. They can play together, but the movement around them has to be better. The final ball has to be better. Carroll has to realise it's not all him, which it might have been at Newcastle.

Gerrard being out has been a problem. There's been a space between midfield and attack that we haven't used. Adam has played the quarterback role well on occasion but not to Alonso's standard. The ball goes forward and we're hoping for Suarez to pull out a rabbit, just as we did with Torres and Gerrard. The lack of goals is a concern - another reason to swap Downing for Bellamy.

[baja the hut]

we are seriously in trouble for 4th...both Newcastle and Spurs are 6 ahead (Spurs albeit with a game in hand) and Arsenal on the ascendancy.

 

we have not been clinical enough with our finishing, including suarez who though brilliant has tried cute things when he should have been drilling shots in the bottom corner.

 

i seriously doubt we will make 4th.

[Falconhoof]

we are seriously in trouble for 4th

 

11 games played. A lot can change over the winter.