Comolli and our buying strategy

[David Hodgson]

Read this fascinating piece about the increasing primacy of statistical analysis in club's purchasing decisions.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/9471db52-97bb-11e0-9c37-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PnOXOeJP

 

The deeper you get into the article a picture emerges that suggests that perhaps FSG are not just tipping their hat to the 'Moneyball' ethos, but are going for it hook line and sinker with LFC, and Damien Comolli is their key instrument. Whether you buy this philosophy or not, there is a dawning realisation of exactly why we're seeing ourselves linked to the players we have been this summer. Adam, Downing, Henderson and even Clichy are big big box tickers when the stats file gets opened. Of course they all youngish, premiership proven, and have re-sale value, but they also all measure up when the statistical profiling starts.

 

Can't say I'm yet a 100% convinced this approach will work, but I'm also kind of excited that we may be that vanguard of something genuinely new and progressive, and romantically hopeful that we'll prevail because of it. Go team Comolli.

[Tosh]

Read this fascinating piece about the increasing primacy of statistical analysis in club's purchasing decisions.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/9471db52-97bb-11e0-9c37-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PnOXOeJP

 

The deeper you get into the article a picture emerges that suggests that perhaps FSG are not just tipping their hat to the 'Moneyball' ethos, but are going for it hook line and sinker with LFC, and Damien Comolli is their key instrument. Whether you buy this philosophy or not, there is a dawning realisation of exactly why we're seeing ourselves linked to the players we have been this summer. Adam, Downing, Henderson and even Clichy are big big box tickers when the stats file gets opened. Of course they all youngish, premiership proven, and have re-sale value, but they also all measure up when the statistical profiling starts.

 

Can't say I'm yet a 100% convinced this approach will work, but I'm also kind of excited that we may be that vanguard of something genuinely new and progressive, and romantically hopeful that we'll prevail because of it. Go team Comolli.

 

But we are not at the vanguard. Comolli may be an early disciple but as the articale says, the numbers fellas are taking over the asylum

[Epic Swindle]

At least it's a clear strategy unlike the recent years of winging it.

[Ronnie#5]

Very intertesting article. I personally think it's great that we have a cohesive strategy for recruitment. Thanks for posting DH

[David Hodgson]

But we are not at the vanguard. Comolli may be an early disciple but as the articale says, the numbers fellas are taking over the asylum

 

Well, I suppose I'm projecting that Comolli is in the process of taking it to another level. The focus on a player like Downing might suggest this. We don't seem to be exactly facing a battle from Europe's elite for him, yet we seem to be prepared to pay what it'll take to prise him from his club. We clearly value him at a much higher level than his profile would dictate, and I'm guessing that's stat analysis driven, and in a way that is registering on Comoli's analytical radar that it isn't at other clubs.

[Benzo-13]

I don't mind the idea of using all this statistical stuff but what about the signings that are obvious to us but don't fit into this approach?

 

Say? Xabi wanted to return and we said no?

 

Football's a bit different to rounders.

[David Hodgson]

At least it's a clear strategy unlike the recent years of winging it.

 

It's strikes me as a brave attempt to find a new way to compete. If other teams continually outspend you (which the likes of the Spanish giants, Chelsea, Man City and even United, will continually do) then we will never really win the top prizes unless we stumble across a better manager than they have. Getting Kenny in is a great start, but he's got a way to go in his second coming phase to prove he's better than the likes of Ferguson or Mourinho. So if all the big teams can spend heavily and recruit great managers there needs to be something of a paradigm shift to find a new way of being competitive without simply matching spending.

 

Now we know Comolli hasn't exactly invented this new wheel, and plenty are dipping more than toes in the water of this new stat driven methodology, but if he is has the intelligence to truly harness the new approach correctly it will give us a window for gaining a competitive advantage. At least, I'm guessing, that's the FSG plan.

 

I don't mind the idea of using all this statistical stuff but what about the signings that are obvious to us but don't fit into this approach?

 

Say? Xabi wanted to return and we said no?

 

Football's a bit different to rounders.

 

 

I don't disagree. This is clearly a 'science' in its infancy, but it has some validity and it means that we may be entering an era where the club who have the best manager/stats man partnership will be the most successful. I'm hopeful that the Comolli/Kenny team is going to be a tad more sophisticated when looking at a no brainer signing like Xabi would be, and not be ruled by 'computer says no' mentality.

[McBain]

We may or may not be operating with that type of system, but one thing i know is that spending big on a young player in a position we weren't desperate to strengthen sends out a clear message about funding.

 

If we get to the end of the summer and cb, lb and upfront haven't been seriously improved, ie due to having spent money elsewhere, then the summer will have been a bad one and a miscalculated one. However it doesn't seem to be heading that way. I think the club has clear ideas and the money to back them up. Which is a bit different to the last 3 years

[Epic Swindle]

Think they're putting a lot of faith in the new financial restictions as well, which, in theory, should level out the playing field. I don't think it's fool proof and there's bound to be mistakes along the way because there'll always be the human element, but hopefully it should minimise the over paid and mediocre.

Edited June 20, 2011 by Epic Swindle

[schmuckdonald]

As much I agree, in theory, in the use of statistics and that Comolli is at the forefront of it, I find it difficult to give credence to a movement/development that Sam Allardyce played a big role in.

 

Is really interesting how statisticians are playing a larger role in modern football, though. Learning more and more about how the game works every season.

[Benzo-13]

I don't disagree. This is clearly a 'science' in its infancy, but it has some validity and it means that we may be entering an era where the club who have the best manager/stats man partnership will be the most successful. I'm hopeful that the Comolli/Kenny team is going to be a tad more sophisticated when looking at a no brainer signing like Xabi would be, and not be ruled by 'computer says no' mentality.

 

One of Kenny's great abilities as a manger is spotting a player.

I'd hate that to be overlooked.

If we can marry the blend of both then as you say we should be in good shape.

Going for one approach leaves the risk of failure higher.

[Raj]

One of Kenny's great abilities as a manger is spotting a player.

I'd hate that to be overlooked.

If we can marry the blend of both then as you say we should be in good shape.

Going for one approach leaves the risk of failure higher.

 

He gets final say on any transfer, so its not an issue

[Conrad]

Don't know if Bob or Kenny were pursuing a strategy or just good at spotting players and good at knowing where the gaps were that needed filling. Personally, I hope Kenny is the one telling DC what he wants and what he thinks needs addressing. I also expect Kenny to be putting forward plenty of names.

 

I don't give a monkeys if the players he identifies as the ones needed to get us challenging are moneyball or not.

[smithdown]

One of Kenny's great abilities as a manger is spotting a player.

I'd hate that to be overlooked.

If we can marry the blend of both then as you say we should be in good shape.

Going for one approach leaves the risk of failure higher.

 

 

I'm thinking back now and thinking of signings when he was last around - the Spackmans, McMahons, Houghtons - and his time at Blackburn - Tony Gale is a name that springs to mind. Not obvious signings, like.

 

We were outbid on players before, the likes of Snodin for example, and our 88 forward line cost less than Tony Cottee.

[David Hodgson]

I'm thinking back now and thinking of signings when he was last around - the Spackmans, McMahons, Houghtons - and his time at Blackburn - Tony Gale is a name that springs to mind. Not obvious signings, like.

 

We were outbid on players before, the likes of Snodin for example, and our 88 forward line cost less than Tony Cottee.

 

Yeah, I can only really recall two 'marquee' (I f*cking hate that term, but it does a job) signings in Kenny's reign. First being Beardsley and the second being the bringing back of Ian Rush. No one got excited when we signed Venison, McMahon, Aldridge, Spackman or Houghton, and no one saw Barnes as a key buy. Hard to say who Barnes would be like know profile wise. He'd been a very promising kid but the perception was that he'd fallen away badly and would never fulfil his promise. He hadn't even had a bright season the one before we'd signed him. Might be a bit like if we signed Aaron Lennon now. There would be more moaning about him than happy.

 

Don't know if Bob or Kenny were pursuing a strategy or just good at spotting players and good at knowing where the gaps were that needed filling. Personally, I hope Kenny is the one telling DC what he wants and what he thinks needs addressing. I also expect Kenny to be putting forward plenty of names.

 

I don't give a monkeys if the players he identifies as the ones needed to get us challenging are moneyball or not.

 

I'm not entirely sure what Money ball is, but I think I understand the principles of the statistically based approach. What it's trying to do is supplement, through data, the information that the great player spotters can do intuitively. The clear advantage of the stats approach is that it can save an inordinate amount of time spent trying to scout emerging talent.

[aka Dus]

There's reams of data but understanding what it means won't be an overnight job. Good that we are involved and hopefully equipping ourselves with the best analysts.

[Leo No.8]

Still not sure its as applicable to football as it is to baseball. In baseball they broke things down to discover that on base percentage was much more valuable than guys who hit big homeruns, defence (fielding in cricket) etc. They signed players who were fat or not athletic for cheaper prices because they figured that statistically the most important thing was their ability to get on base and not to strike out too easily and in so doing wear down the pitcher. They looked crap but they were effective.

 

This approach worked and effectively changed the way people looked at the sport. They looked more at the stats than what a player looked like or the spectacular things he did inconsistently. It can be applied to football to a certain extent, but I think our game is a much more fluid sport. Perhaps set pieces and certain aspects of a player's valuation such as the number of games they are actually fit to play in could be given greater importance, but I don't think there are attributes everyone is understating.

 

For example the Oakland A's took players who nobody wanted to draft and drafted them in the higher rounds because they valued them differently (on base percentage). Its like a Premier League team suddenly buying 2nd division players because they could so something particularly well which we all undervalued - but the fluid nature of our game and the speed mean that someone from down there wouldn't be able to keep up with the Premier league, it simply couldn't happen here.

 

I think injury record is one thing that is undervalued in transfers; I'd be happy for us to overpay for top quality players who don't historically get injured, against paying a bit less for quality players with questionable injury records. Any player can break a bone, thats just unlucky - but those who consistently pick up hamstring, thigh, groin injuries as well as persistent knee problems we shouldn't touch in anything except truly exceptional circumstances.

 

Its a double edged sword with injury prone players. Not only do you have play inferior players when you lose them for long periods, it makes it harder to sign players and manage your squad because you don't know how many games you'll get from them a season. Look at Agger - we all know he's quality but what the f*ck do we do with him? Do we keep him in the hope he'll stop getting injured because he's a great player? Do we replace him, and how much will we get for him with his injury record?

 

The other major negative is those injuries gradually take their toll on a player's game, particularly when it comes to explosive type forwards or wingers. It also increases the chance of early retirement.

 

That would be my biggest moneyball thing on football transfers - the thing which is undervalued generally at present. Buying an injury prone player in the hope he'll stay fit - thats just not good business sense, its rolling the dice but teams do it all the time for big money. I can't see how the hell even with all his money Abramovic could justify £50m on a wonderful player who has been riddled by injuries for two season and whose game has clearly suffered. And its the one thing that bothers me about Carroll rather than his ability.

 

I would rather pay £18m for a player who has rarely suffered from injuries than £9m for a player of comparable abilty who has a history of problems. I would consider injury record as worth double the price in some cases, depending on the severity.

Edited June 20, 2011 by Leo No.8

[Rimbeux]

I like the Gray Speed example. His physical output was as good as players in their 20s when he was well into his 30s. It's counter the intuition of what to do with players hitting their 30s when it became the thing to discard them and not pay for what a player had done, rather what they will do as they pass their peak. Milan swam against the tide also

[Maldini]

Read this fascinating piece about the increasing primacy of statistical analysis in club's purchasing decisions.

 

http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz1PnOXOeJP

 

The deeper you get into the article a picture emerges that suggests that perhaps FSG are not just tipping their hat to the 'Moneyball' ethos, but are going for it hook line and sinker with LFC, and Damien Comolli is their key instrument. Whether you buy this philosophy or not, there is a dawning realisation of exactly why we're seeing ourselves linked to the players we have been this summer. Adam, Downing, Henderson and even Clichy are big big box tickers when the stats file gets opened. Of course they all youngish, premiership proven, and have re-sale value, but they also all measure up when the statistical profiling starts.

 

Can't say I'm yet a 100% convinced this approach will work, but I'm also kind of excited that we may be that vanguard of something genuinely new and progressive, and romantically hopeful that we'll prevail because of it. Go team Comolli.

 

We don't know who stacks up statistically though or how, you can bet the metrics used at the highest level aren't the nonsense we're fed from Sky or Opta. There's no way of knowing which criteria we're prioritising and chances are we'll never know as this kind of thing will always be proprietary in football whereas it was fan driven in the US so everyone became aware of which metrics were effective indicators of success.

[magic melia]

Given the choice would you prefer cold hard stats or a youtube compilation of players highlights .

[Hassony]

Given the choice would you prefer cold hard stats or a youtube compilation of players highlights .

 

Kaizer vs Milankakabaros

[Damian_de]

Still not sure its as applicable to football as it is to baseball.

Maybe not as applicable, but almost certainly applicable in many aspects. Generally agree about the injury history/value point, but really that is common sense as much as anything, surely?

 

I'm afraid that I don't really find the rest of your argumentation that convincing, especially the bit about finding bargain players in the 2nd division who are good at one or 2 things which have been deemed undervalued in the market. You might actually be able to find such players, but there is no indication that stats are being used to inform a transfer policy of finding players who are good at one or two things at all.

 

We don't know who stacks up statistically though or how, you can bet the metrics used at the highest level aren't the nonsense we're fed from Sky or Opta.

Hah. For sure.

edit... I guess there is some good stuff which could be obtained from the Opta records, actually.

Edited June 21, 2011 by Damian_de

[Leo No.8]

Maybe not as applicable, but almost certainly applicable in many aspects. Generally agree about the injury history/value point, but really that is common sense as much as anything, surely?

 

I'm afraid that I don't really find the rest of your argumentation that convincing, especially the bit about finding bargain players in the 2nd division who are good at one or 2 things which have been deemed undervalued in the market. You might actually be able to find such players, but there is no indication that stats are being used to inform a transfer policy of finding players who are good at one or two things at all.

 

Re the first bit - thats really my point. There seems to be not enough common sense when it comes to injuries, I think injury record is undervalued. It is clearly a factor, but I think behind ability it should be the 2nd biggest factor and effect fees far more than it does.

 

I assume you haven't read the book moneyball with regards to the second bit - its kind of what its all about; Oakland drafted complete nobodies who no other club wanted because they were good at getting on base, no matter what shape they were in. They basically traded off the on base percentage for their fielding (defence) and accepted they would give runs away on that side but would score more. I'm not saying that is being done here - I'm saying that is what moneyball was about essentially about but it wouldn't work here.

 

That game is a much more mechanical, stop start game and they were able to pinpoint certain attributes that were undervalued by other clubs in the process of scoring runs and winning games. Our game isn't like that - its a fluid, non stop game which you can't quite pull apart in that way. I think we're talking a little at cross purposes because I'm relating directly to what they did in baseball at Oakland and trying to compare it to football (which it doesn't directly, although we can use certain aspects and ideas).

Edited June 21, 2011 by Leo No.8

[Chewie]

So whaddya all think of Martin jol's opinion of Comolli? Said he over ruled on football matters and that he (Jol) brought Bale and Lennon...

 

Only time is gonna tell eh...

 

Chewie

[CarraLegend]

Martin Jol is a fat prick