The 2010 Grand National

Earl Hafler · April 2, 2010

As usual, i've been studying this since the entries were first declared and with a week to go before the big race, i think we can narrow it down to a couple of horses. What's more, i'm quite sure that at least one of the horses currently occupying top weight of 11st 10lb will run so there'll be no change in the weights.

Madison Du Berlais

Talented horse who loves flat tracks but has little chance of winning this off top weight, and is not certain to last home over the 4 1/2 miles. Likely to run to keep the stables main hope, The Package, on a nice racing weight.

Notre Pere

Like the above, is a talented horse and would have more of a chance than Madison but has started to make errors at fences and unshipped his jockey last time. Will appreciate the forecast rain, should run a good race if he lines up but doubtful he'll win.

Mon Mome

Last years winner is now 10lb's higher and carrying more weight, but to counter that is in much better form going into this years race - won it fairly comfortably last year. Should at least finish in the first 6 home. Would be the first horse since Red Rum to win carrying this sort of weight.

Black Apalachi

Ran in the race two years ago and fell early on, but returned to the course that autumn to win easily. Came back for last years National and fell on the second circuit. Almost 20lb's higher now though since his last win and chance of making it third time lucky is slim

Joe Lively

Very talented on his day, which is usually at Cheltenham, and has all the attributes to be a National winner - the distance should not be a problem - but recent form has been disappointing. However, the same could have been said for Mon Mome last year, and if Joe Lively gets into a rhythm he as a definite chance. One to back in running. Main problem - jockey's record at Aintree is atrocious.

Vic Venturi

Would appear to have everything needed to be a National winner. Stays and jumps all day, rarely runs a bad race and if he lines up, is the most likely of the top weighted horses to win. Rain would not be a problem and 16-1 is a good each way price. Trainer in poor form, though.

Comply Or Die

Winner two years ago, second last year but i think that's all she wrote in the Grand National history of this horse. Looks to have entered one of his moody spells and i can see him being pulled up. Had a different campaign from when he won and i think COD has lost interest in the game.

Don't Push It

If trained right i think this horse could win a National, but he's been in a few hard battles this season which appear to have bottomed him as he was hopeless last time out. Should be watched out for next year. After saying all that, there's something in the back of my head that says i should stick a few quid on him, partly because the trainer is a crafty, cheating b*****d and it wouldn't be the first time that McCoy has chosen the wrong horse for this race.

Made In Taipan

For a National type he might as well have been Made In Taiwan. Wouldn't back him with fake money.

Niche Market

Will be tipped by many but not me. Won the Irish National last year and is a proven stayer, but i have major doubts about him carrying this sort of weight. Both chase wins have come when carrying 10st 5lb or less, and when carrying more than 11st, especially in handicaps, has usually run a stinker. With the extra burden, i don't see him getting home.

Tricky Trickster

Has the type of name that once-a-year punters love and will be a popular choice next Saturday. although anyone who watched him in the Gold Cup will wonder why. Should stay but lacks the experience for this and will no doubt be ridden by one of Nicholls back-up jockies and for that reason can be passed over easily.

Cloudy Lane

A 3 miler that doesn't stay the National distance and will only win if given a couple of fences head start.

Dream Alliance

Has had completed only 2 races in 3 years but one of them was this seasons Welsh National. However, is unbackable at Aintree for numerous reasons, one being that it will have to have been Biblical rain all week for him to stand a chance.

Nozic

Might run well for a circuit but won't last home.

My Will

Has run well in this race on previous occasions, but appears to be on the wain, having run miserably all season. Hasn't won a race for 4 years. Very unlikely to stop the rot.

Pablo Du Charmil

Errrr....nooo.

Backstage

A good, improving horse that has yet to show he's capable of winning somethinf of this quality. Would also appear to need quickish ground to be at his best over fences but even if the rain stays away from Aintree, i can't see him troubling the commentators on the final circuit.

Ballyholland

Has risen 45lb's in the weights in the last 2 years, winning 4 of 8 races. However, yet to win a race beyond 3 miles and will probably run with credit ( especially if ridden by McNamara ) without troubling the winning post.

Beat The Boys

f*** knows. Either gets pulled up, falls or wins. IF, and that's the biggest if in the race, he gets into the lead early and jumps the first few fences well, then it has a chance, but this horse is not one to put your faith in. That said, Twiston can do little wrong at present and there's usually a story in the National. Can be backed at 66's to 100's and that's about right.

Preists Leap

Not even God would take this one.

Can't Buy Time

Likely to be the ride of AP McCoy. Has won lesser races over 3 miles, better races over shorter and has been labelled as a non stayer since. However, i think that's a mistake as their are National types on both sides of the breeding. My main concern is that i think he's rated above his best - the race he won at Cheltenham was filled with horses knocking on the retirement door and so a rating of 147 is excessive, putting him 3 stones higher than when he started over fences. Likely to run well without being placed.

Snowy Morning

Very interesting runner. 3rd two years ago, 9th last year when carrying too much weight. Is now back down to only 2lb's higher than when he ran 3rd and has had a similarly good season as then. Should at least get in the first 4 and 20-1 is excellent each way value.

Air Force One

Would have a chance on his best form but is very out of it at the moment. Unlikely to finish.

Big Fella Thanks

The favourite and mount of Ruby Walsh. 6th in the race last year as a novice and with the handicap of having Christian Williams on board. Walsh is light years ahead of him as a jockey but i still don't fancy it to win. Makes too many mistakes for my liking.

Deutschland

Very doubtful he'll last round here.

Character Building

Is a proven stayer but might now be too high in the weights and has shown little form this season, although has almost certainly be aimed at this since last year. Has less chance than Snowy Morning and yet is the same price. Should finish in the top 10.

Chelsea Harbour

9th two years ago, fell early last year and has little chance on improving on those.

Dooneys Gate

Has yet to win a race of sufficient quality to suggest it's capable of winning a National and a rating of 145 is optimistic.

State Of Play

4th last year when hampered at a crucial time and did well to recover. Still might not have beaten Mon Mome but no hiding the horses ability to win one of these. Concern that he was pulled up in the autumn - first time in his career - but the absence since should not be a problem if it wasn't because of injury as this horse is best fresh after a few months off. Should be involved.

Ellerslie George

Steady jumper and has won 5 times out of 17 races over fences, yet i think he's too high in the weights and might struggle to get round.

Ballyfitz

Hasn't won over fences since a novice two years ago and can't see it changing here.

Conna Castle

If this were the only horse in the race, i'd keep my hand in my pocket. The real castle has more chance of winning.

Equus Maximus

Needs bog type conditions to have a remote chance and hasn't shown enough to be considered.

Eric's Charm

Now 12 but in the best form of his career, having won it's last two starts. Fell when tackling these fences in the Topham and have to be concerned about being good enough to win this at such a late stage in the day.

King John's Castle

Second two years ago, not seen much since but has been aimed at this all season and is only 2lb's higher than last time. Again, one to back in running after the first few have been jumped. 40-1 ? Too big a price considering the horse and who it runs for.

Ollie Magern

One time top horse who has gone awol in recent years. Has dropped down the handicap as a result and showed signs last time that there might be a swan song on the horizon. Depends who rides him but is likely to go off at 100 to 150-1 and i'll be having a pint on that - if the ground is Good.

Arbor Supreme

Shot up in the weights 2 years ago and has taken time to progress into the rating given to it. Townend has a good record on him and chance of a place.

Lennon

More chance of John winning.

Maljimar

Frustrating horse who makes too many mistakes to be considered over these fences.

Irish Raptor

3 miles is about the limit of this ones stamina. No chance.

Mr Pointment

Changed trainers, no hoper.

Piraya

Very doubtful stayer and is too one paced.

The Package

Decent enough chance for a novice and yet might be too inexperienced. The style of running is also a concern as it is often held up at the back and gets outpaced midrace - a disaster for a horse in the National. Murphy might change tactic but i doubt he'll win anyway

Hello Bud

Farewell, money.

Snowy Morning and Vic Venturi are my two at the moment, though the race could cut up if it rains.

Hightown Phil · April 2, 2010

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