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will they never learn?

 

The Met Office may have given up long-range forecasting for the general public after getting its fingers burned by predicting a barbecue summer last year, but one of its rivals is not being so cautious. Positive Weather Solutions is apparently set to predict a sizzling summer this year.

 

The forecaster reckons it will be a summer to match or even beat 1976, when the country baked in record-breaking temperatures through July and experienced drought conditions until the weather broke in time for the bank holiday at the end of August. Jonathan Powell, the organisation's senior forecaster, told the Daily [Hate]: "There will be stifling temperatures, making it possibly the warmest UK summer on record and placing it at least in the top three warmest summers recorded." Note the cautious "possibly".

 

The forecast, to be published tomorrow, apparently suggests June will start fine, followed by rain in the middle of the month, with changeable conditions and heavy rain in time for Wimbledon fortnight. So far, so normal. Mid-July will see a very warm spell, followed by humidity, thunderstorms and flash floods. August will have long spells of sun and heat, but with the usual caveat that it will become showery and changeable nearing September. So probably no blizzards this summer, or plagues of frogs.

 

For comparison's sake, here is the PWS prediction for the current month, issued at the end of February:

 

Winter refuses to let go for at least the first half of March, and despite some encouraging temperatures especially to the south, it will soon turn colder again, with wintry showers to the north and east ... Expect some wet and windy weather through mid-March, with the possibility of some flooding, as the Atlantic takes a hold on UK weather. Temperatures will recover to on or above the average. The month ends on an unsettled note, with more rain and strong winds likely, mixed in with some drier and brighter weather. Temperature-wise, by the end of March it will feel rather spring-like.

 

Yup, that sounds a bit like March. PWS are more sceptical about long-term climatic trends, beyond the sizzling summer. Its website says it is "of the firm belief that global warming is cyclical, and there is no substantial, conclusive evidence, to back up the statement that we are heading towards a 'runaway climate' scenario".

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