Grimmest thread ever

[Frosty Jack]

There are theories going around about why Gerrard and Torres don't look happy, or in the formers case, like they actually care. Most think they're frustrated by poor tactics and have lost faith in the manager, which may of course be the truth or part of it.

 

This is pure speculation, but in the context of what is about to happen with our loans, especially now we will most likely not qualify for the champions league, could it be that they might both know they could be sold in the summer?

 

This doesn't excuse performances, exonerate the manager or the players for this clusterf*** of a season. But if people are looking for psychological factors to explain such a catastrophic collapse, i'd say the above scenario is a lot more frightening than what's been happening on the pitch.

 

That begs the question, just how much would fans tolerate in order to stabilize the club?

 

Selling of say 6 or 7 first teamers to clear our debts? raising the ticket price by £10 instead of building a new stadium?

Promote manager from within? I'd imagine any of these would be being considered by the owners.

 

To sell off our crown jewels in order to pay off the Americans debts would be shocking, but I don't see what is stopping them if the club isn't bought before July. The players know more than we do.

 

Easy to imagine really. Debt cleared. Depleted team, stripped of assets and out of Champions league, sold for £200m or so, owners walk away with £100m each on £0 investment. Why wouldn't they do that? What is stopping them?

[RedMersey]

Thanks for totally ruining my day..

 

Havent given this much thought, simply because it's utterly depressing.

 

Why wouldn't they? Good question. They would.

[Falconhoof]

I think its probably crossed their minds that they won't be at the club next season. We won't be in European football next year, thats going to have other clubs notably Man City in the driving seat to attract our better players.

From the banks point of view, if we have dramatically reduced earnings then bids for our high wage players would be quite welcome.

 

Pay off almost all the debt in one hit and aim for mid table. The banks win and Hicks and Gillet keep the club.

[barnesology]

The banks win and Hicks and Gillet keep the club.

 

 

and I buy a high powered snipers rifle.........

[Frosty Jack]

Pay off almost all the debt in one hit and aim for mid table. The banks win and Hicks and Gillet keep the club.

 

And the thing is, they might not even have any choice. This isn't about the manager anymore, he's as good as gone.

 

We will be in the same situation as this season, but with £30m less income and renegotiated loans, best case, in the absence of new investment or ownership.

 

What would we tolerate to prevent the clubs financial situation from worsening further?

Edited March 12, 2010 by Wyndham Lewis

[Molby]

There are theories going around about why Gerrard and Torres don't look happy, or in the formers case, like they actually care. Most think they're frustrated by poor tactics and have lost faith in the manager, which may of course be the truth or part of it.

 

This is pure speculation, but in the context of what is about to happen with our loans, especially now we will most likely not qualify for the champions league, could it be that they might both know they could be sold in the summer?

 

This doesn't excuse performances, exonerate the manager or the players for this clusterf*** of a season. But if people are looking for psychological factors to explain such a catastrophic collapse, i'd say the above scenario is a lot more frightening than what's been happening on the pitch.

 

That begs the question, just how much would fans tolerate in order to stabilize the club?

 

Selling of say 6 or 7 first teamers to clear our debts? raising the ticket price by £10 instead of building a new stadium?

Promote manager from within? I'd imagine any of these would be being considered by the owners.

 

To sell off our crown jewels in order to pay off the Americans debts would be shocking, but I don't see what is stopping them if the club isn't bought before July. The players know more than we do.

 

Easy to imagine really. Debt cleared. Depleted team, stripped of assets and out of Champions league, sold for £200m or so, owners walk away with £100m each on £0 investment. Why wouldn't they do that? What is stopping them?

 

 

your synopsis is entirely correct and is the correct course of action for G and H to take given their predicament

 

maybe they won't do it cos they have a sudden crisis of conscience although that's the kind of wishful thinking that allowed Hitler to be appeased

[Damian_de]

Does it not also depend on their willingness to move? They have contracts, they probably have the honour to stick it out for at least another season, too. I think it more likely that they are frustrated by being unable to halt the decline, because of not being fit...

 

But failure to reach the CL will surely have very significant consequences for us, and we can't say what lengths the owners will go to to service the debt. Thing is, this shouldn't be surprising anyone. What's their modus-operandi (or Hicks, at least) been elsewhere? Exactly the nightmare scenario, asset stripped and profit made. Don't think this season's car crash in slow motion performances have done much to make our situation worse, tbh, because we have been f***ed ever since those 2 took over.

Edited March 12, 2010 by Damian_de

[Frosty Jack]

As Molby says, without conscience, from their perspective, that is exactly what they should do.

 

It would leave the club midtable at best, but without debt, and with increased matchday revenue. There's always chance that we could then improve over the years. But yes it would set us back a decade.

 

Or a new owner could come in and name their price if really G&H wanted out, at present with the debt how it is there's no way the club is being sold for less than 400m. At least clearing the debt would open more doors to new ownership or even fan ownership.

 

As I said, this will come down to how much we are prepared to tolerate, and how realistic we are prepared to be about the clubs predicament.

[sean]

You just can't put anything past this pair, but I doubt it's anything to do with the duo's form as if they knew or even thought this they'd surely 'out' the owners. And they are both professionals, they owe it to themselves to be the best, as they have been.

Edited March 12, 2010 by sean

[The Hitman]

There is also,however,the impact that the sale of the top players would have on matchday revenues. People would stop going,I'm positive of that. I remember the old,last days of Houllier's reign,when tickets suddenly became extremely easy to come by.

 

People love this club,but they don't love it that f*cking much.

A mid-table mediocrity like you're proposing really isn't worth all that much money to G&H. The footballing success of the club is directly linked to the value of the club.

[matty]

Now is the time more than ever for extreme measures. Boycott has to be strongly considered, I would have thought.

[Frosty Jack]

There is also,however,the impact that the sale of the top players would have on matchday revenues. People would stop going,I'm positive of that. I remember the old,last days of Houllier's reign,when tickets suddenly became extremely easy to come by.

 

People love this club,but they don't love it that f*cking much.

A mid-table mediocrity like you're proposing really isn't worth all that much money to G&H. The footballing success of the club is directly linked to the value of the club.

 

 

This is obviously true, but we haven't won the league in 20 years and yet Anfield still sells out.

Like the man said, you only have to give the impression of trying to achieve success.

 

But in this situation, there might not be any choice than drastic measures so these points will sadly become academic.

They are failing to sustain the value of their asset already, as the club will be out of the CL and worth less, key players are getting older.

 

 

 

 

[The Hitman]

Not winning the league in 20 years is a bit different to mid-table mediocrity.

 

I can't see it happening,primarily because it does nothing to sustain the value of the club,which is their overall goal. It's just an incredibly short-term solution,that I don't believe holds any value for them.

They won't be able to sell the club on for any sort of profit if the team's $hite, in mid-table with poor attendances,and a deteriorating reputation worldwide. Unless they sold it to somebody with megabucks who is prepared to shell out a load of money,immediately,to improve the standard of the side.

If that person existed,why wouldn't they come in now,whilst the club is still towards the top of English football?

 

I think the situation is far more likely where,as the deadline approaches with RBS,they get some form of investment from outside to reduce the debt.

It makes sense for potential investors to sit on their hands for the moment,as the longer that elapses in the period to the refinancing,the better conditions they will get for their money.They'd essentially have G&H over a barrel.

[Frosty Jack]

I think the situation is far more likely where,as the deadline approaches with RBS,they get some form of investment from outside to reduce the debt.

It makes sense for potential investors to sit on their hands for the moment,as the longer that elapses in the period to the refinancing,the better conditions they will get for their money.They'd essentially have G&H over a barrel.

 

But, if this is indeed what they're looking for, would reducing the debt by 100m from another investor (more than likely to also be another loan) make much difference to the situation? we will still be broke next season with a £20m interest payment rather than £30m. They could clear the debt, sell the club on the cheap and still walk away with a decent profit, albeit not quite the $1bn asset Hicks had in mind to develop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Conrad]

Selling Torres and Gerrard will considerably lessen the value of the club for potential purchasers. I don't see them selling either for that reason alone. whether they agitate for a move is another matter.

[Tones]

I never believed they would sell them. Yes it would pay off debts, but it would lessen the value or their asset, and seriously reduce revenues from merchandise, as Torres and Gerrard are the top earners for them there. However things have gotten worse as last summer showed. If they are forced to provide £100m in the coming months to the banks, then they may not have a choice. Im not so sure now at all.

[Beardsley]

and I buy a high powered snipers rifle.........

 

 

I'll give you a waterproof alibi.

[The Hitman]

If this were to happen,things could get really,really nasty,in my opinion.

 

To your average matchgoer,things like interest repayments/debt/leveraged buyouts etc. don't really matter too much. We've seen that ambivalence in the difficulty to get a really huge protest going,or any sort of effective actions taken. As long as the team is winning,there's no problem. When the team is losing,it's Rafa/Insua/Lucas etc's fault.

 

When top players start to get sold,and aren't replaced,that's when it will really hit home. When it becomes apparent that, whether Lucas is good enough or not,or whether Rafa is good enough any more, these details are irrelevant in the bigger picture. It would provide the biggest,clearest indication to the normally nonplussed people,that the club is in terminal decline under the current ownership.

 

I really don't think it will happen,but if it does,I really can't see too many people having a problem with boycotting matches.

[Frosty Jack]

Selling Torres and Gerrard will considerably lessen the value of the club for potential purchasers.

 

But the hypothesis was that this wouldn't affect the bottom line to the current owners. It would actually benefit them through removing the interest payments between now and the clubs sale (if it didn't happen this year for example). It might halve the value of the club, but they'd still make more from a sale than they would in the current situation where nobody is prepared to meet the asking price they need to make a profit above repaying the debt.

 

 

 

 

 

[Leo No.8]

Bit masochistic this thread isn't it? Torres and Gerrard wouldn't have to leave if they didn't want to as they are under contract for several years. The idea that they are miserable and playing badly because they are being forced out the door seems a bit silly to me personally.

 

Think speculating on it is pretty pointless and depressing also.

Edited March 12, 2010 by Leo No.8

[Frosty Jack]

Bit masochistic this thread isn't it? Torres and Gerrard wouldn't have to leave if they didn't want to as they are under contract for several years. The idea that they are miserable and playing badly because they are being forced out the door seems a bit silly to me personally.

 

Think speculating on it is pretty pointless and depressing also.

 

 

But is it any more pointless than any of the other speculation on here? They're playing badly because they don't like their teammates or the manager never gives them a hug or they only care about the world cup?

 

Can you honest tell me what will happen if 100m investment isn't found before July, and that selling players wouldn't be considered?

[drdooom]

Are players really the kind of assets that affect the value of the club much? Yes, Torres is great and could be sold for £40m pounds or whatever today but if he does his cruciate tomorrow he's worth 0. How much would having or not having a player like him at the club really matter when it comes to deciding what to pay for it?

 

Wouldn't the £Xm less debt from selling some players be worth far more than the presence of the players?

Edited March 12, 2010 by drdooom

[Frosty Jack]

Are players really the kind of assets that affect the value of the club much? Yes, Torres is great and could be sold for £40m pounds or whatever today but if he does his cruciate tomorrow he's worth 0. How much would having or not having a player like him at the club really matter when it comes to deciding what to pay for it?

 

Wouldn't the £Xm less debt from selling some players be worth far more than the presence of the players?

 

Good point. And I think the owners could get £75m for each of them if they wanted or needed to.

I'd be very surprised if they weren't considering this as an option.

[The Hitman]

Are players really the kind of assets that affect the value of the club much? Yes, Torres is great and could be sold for £40m pounds or whatever today but if he does his cruciate tomorrow he's worth 0. How much would having or not having a player like him at the club really matter when it comes to deciding what to pay for it?

 

Wouldn't the £Xm less debt from selling some players be worth far more than the presence of the players?

Players are exactly the kind of assets that affect the value of the club,because they dictate the future revenue stream of the company. The success of the team is directly linked to the profitability of the company,through advertising/marketing revenue, TV money from both PL and Champions League, prizewinning money etc.

 

Players are accounted for as intangible assets,and form a significant part of the balance sheet.

 

And I'd be astounded if we got anywhere near £75m for Gerrard at his age,and following the season and injuries he'd just had.

£40m tops,and when you consider his marketing value,the fact that he has in the past almost single-handedly carried us through the Champions League (with its own additional revenues) I'm not sure it would be worthwhile,merely to reduce the levels of debt.

[SkippyjonJones]

so we sell the top players. wages would plummet and there would be no need to increase ticket prices. Liverpool fc becomes a cash cow. The owners then sell it to a new investor who then leverages the assest in order that they don;t have to put any money in. They end up selling the top players and increasing the ticket prices. they screw the club but because of the cash flow can still sell it for a profit......

 

 

cheery isn;t it.