My false hope

[Igors Uncle Dave]

Today the excitement of the closing day of the transfer window, I hoped that perhaps the media had it all wrong and that we would make a closing day transfer coup. Perhaps the stories of the transfer money for Xabi going to pay off some of the Hicks/Gillette debts was all media hype to try to stir things up even further.

 

I waited with baited breath jumping onto various media sites looking for the tell tale **BREAKING NEWS FROM ANFIELD**. As the day went on the anticipation grew but the hopes started to fade. The deadline came and passed along with my hopes.

 

Now we have to face the fact that we are on the slippery slope with little to look forward to in the near, or perhaps, distant future. The Two Americans are here now for the future and are extremely unlikely to sell, their efforts now intent on selling good players to pay off the club debt.

 

So who will be next?

 

Gerrard has stated that he wants to stay but now in the light of the continuing negativity of the Americans, can we truly believe that he would want to continue his association with the club he has been with all of his footballing life? It is clearly obvious that the Americans are only here to make money and what better way to clear the debts than to sell off top assets like Gerrard, Torres etc. Yes agreed it would not help the club itself but, in the short term and for them, they wouldnt care. Knowing that there could be a massive profit if a middle east buyer came in willing to plough money into the club.

 

The one person I really feel for is Rafa, this guy is a top manager but his stay at the club will not last long and, for what its worth, I dont see him staying until the end of the season. The false promises and the back stabbing he has had to endure, have been enough to make many a lesser man leave. It is difficult to know what is going on behind doors but the little snipets that have come out, do little to clear any of the doubts.

 

So for the future. All we can do is to wait and hope that out there, there is someone who is willing to make a massive sacrifice and buy us out of this mess.

 

As for David Moores and Rick Parry, thanks.

[Kvarme Ate My Food]

at least we'll be spared "misinformation or mismanagement" posts next year, hopefully. and posts with lots of winks.

[BG]

They want to make money: selling the club's best players would very likely:

 

A) Substantially reduce the club's income as a going concern (lower league finishes, less likely to qualify for CL, lower sponsorship, less money from pre-season tours etc etc)

B) Reduce the price they could sell the club for

 

Seems to me their only sensible strategy (given they have limited cash and see the club as an investment) is to invest enough to keep the club competitive and in the CL.

[Gunga Din]

They want to make money: selling the club's best players would very likely:

 

A) Substantially reduce the club's income as a going concern (lower league finishes, less likely to qualify for CL, lower sponsorship, less money from pre-season tours etc etc)

B) Reduce the price they could sell the club for

 

Seems to me their only sensible strategy (given they have limited cash and see the club as an investment) is to invest enough to keep the club competitive and in the CL.

 

or to hold on to it long enough til teh economy improves and they get a buyer, who will probably borrow to buy them out. and round and round we go. Christ, i hate David Moores

[Zoob]

They want to make money: selling the club's best players would very likely:

 

A) Substantially reduce the club's income as a going concern (lower league finishes, less likely to qualify for CL, lower sponsorship, less money from pre-season tours etc etc)

B) Reduce the price they could sell the club for

 

Seems to me their only sensible strategy (given they have limited cash and see the club as an investment) is to invest enough to keep the club competitive and in the CL.

 

Only problem with that is (from their horrible perspective):

 

Scenario A) There could be point where they have to sell players rather than have the bank take over the club - i.e. devaluing the club is preferable (to them) compared to losing it all together

 

Scenario B) It may be that the only people willing to buy the club, are offering such a reduced price, that it makes more sense to devalue the club by selling players (and grimly hang on in hope of a better future offer or investment) rather than to sell for a much lower price than they believe they can get if they hang on.

[pipnasty]

or to hold on to it long enough til teh economy improves and they get a buyer, who will probably borrow to buy them out. and round and round we go. Christ, i hate David Moores

 

 

And that is the problem - I'm no sure how we actually get out of this.

[MFletcher]

I would also like to register my hatred for David Moores.

[tomasjj]

Their idea of making money is making the top 4 every year I reckon.

[Zoob]

Their idea of making money is making the top 4 every year I reckon.

 

Think their idea is to come out of this with a profit, regardless of how long it takes, nor what happens to the club between now and then (although in the short term at least, finishing in the top 4 is going to help their cause...)

[Benzo-13]

I've hated Moores too long as he was always inept in handling managers and this selling the club sh**e he couldn't even get right.

His reign and now his legacy has left the club in a serious malaise that will be damn near impossible to shift.*

 

 

*Depends on who will ever want to buy us.

Edited September 1, 2009 by Benzo-13

[Rory Fitzgerald]

Here is a summary of our financial position from public sources that I can find (and from memory), feel free to add/challenge.

 

1. In 2008, Kop Football Ltd lost 42.6mln of which the most part was due to interest payments of 36mln. However, at club level we made a profit of 10.6mln. Streaming that up to the parent company still falls far short of covering the debt payments. How much did the Yanks claim in expenses, was it about 1.9mln between them ?

 

Therefore, I would suggest we are not the cashcow that some are suggesting here i.e. it does not appear that we are lining their pockets with large dividends, rather we merely helping to service the debt they took out.

 

2. On the back of these developments, KPMG said there was a material uncertainty which casts a significant doubt over the club and parent company’s ability to continue as a going concern.

 

3. The 'going concern' statement from KPMG was prior to the agreement by the 2 banks to the refinancing. The days of cheap credit is gone. Banks are ravenous now. Before they lent money at attractive rates because if they didnt do that then there were 10 other banks behind them willing to do the business.

 

Now they are all in a mode of self preservation - none of them would lend to LFC now under the guidance of G&H. The problem with our 2 banks (RBoS & Wachovia ?) is that they are in bed with us so they have limited 'out' options. Therefore, I am guesstimating that they are killing us with the refinancing terms.

 

If it was 36.5mln in interest payments in 2008, I'm assuming its going to more in 2009.

 

4. Piling this in together (and in the absence of more positive news - unless someone can direct me otherwise), it would appear that the only logical option for Hicks and Gillett is to sell. If they cannot make the club more attractive to external investors by investing to continue improvements then surely there is no other option.

 

In fact, I would be hugely surprised if the RBoS and Wachovia were not all over G&H to (a) secure investment in some form or (b) sell assets such that 'excess cashflow is used for debt payment rather than re-investment' . KPMG's audit is in the public domain, imagine what has been said between the club and the banks behind closed doors.

 

Its difficult to know what the mindset of the owners is, but I hope its organising an exit strategy.

 

After all, if your auditors raise a 'going concern' question in 2008, its hard to see how 2009 will be better under more strenuous debt service obligations and lack of external investment.

 

As I finish this, its hard to see light from this position in the tunnel

Edited September 1, 2009 by Rory Fitzgerald

[Falconhoof]

If I was Gerrard, as ambitious as he is, with the off field crap he's had in Liverpool, i'd start to question where the club is headed.

I might begin to consider a move to another club if this is the kind of investment we are making in the team. Selling Alonso to buy players, thats amateur. Thats the kind of strategy you expect from much smaller clubs.

[Igors Uncle Dave]

As I finish this, its hard to see light from this position in the tunnel

 

My thoughts my friend

[Benzo-13]

The thing is that annoys me most is that we're in debt because we leveraged to buy a stadium thats not even been built or had brick one in the ground yet.

 

These two are taking us all for tools.

[Knox_Harrington]

The thing is that annoys me most is that we're in debt because we leveraged to buy a stadium thats not even been built or had brick one in the ground yet.

 

These two are taking us all for tools.

And which will require the current debt to be doubled to be built.

[Red Kent]

I hate Moores.

I hate Parry.

I hate Hicks.

I hate Gillet.

I hate Ayres.

I hate Purslow.

 

Anyone left ?

[Kvarme Ate My Food]

I hate Moores.

I hate Parry.

I hate Hicks.

I hate Gillet.

I hate Ayres.

I hate Purslow.

 

Anyone left ?

 

you hate Benitez.

[Red Kent]

you hate Benitez.

 

No, he frustrates me at times.

[Benzo-13]

And which will require the current debt to be doubled to be built.

 

Exactly. Who's gonna buy that?

 

Its the reason the Citeh Abu Dhabi crowd didn't.

[Mad Scientist]

Both Rafa and Xabi confirmed that Xabi asked to leave back in April, so I don't think we can logically accuse the Yanks of selling one of our best players in order to service their debt. However, it doesn't look to me like all the Alonso money was reinvested in the squad, and that is concerning. We sold a 30m player and got a 20m player, 10m went walkabout somewhere (maybe some of it was spent on Kyrgiakos, but most of it is still unaccounted for).

 

I am holding onto a slim strand of hope - there is one way (and only one way) that the Yanks can make a really big profit out of our club, and that's to build us a stadium.

Edited September 1, 2009 by Mad Scientist

[Benzo-13]

I am holding onto a slim strand of hope - there is one way (and only one way) that the Yanks can make a really big profit out of our club, and that's to build us a stadium.

 

With what? They've not magic beans.

[Mad Scientist]

With what? They've not magic beans.

I did say it was a slim hope

 

The economy seems to be on the mend. Maybe that will help.

[Knox_Harrington]

I did say it was a slim hope

 

The economy seems to be on the mend. Maybe that will help.

And we go into further debt which the football club cannot afford?

[Mad Scientist]

And we go into further debt which the football club cannot afford?

Temporarily, and then the vermin sell the club for a billion quid to somebody insanely rich and we get back on track again. With a brand spanking new stadium.

 

I know, I know, not likely, but the only other ray of light out there is that there's probably one one manager who could win the league with the squad we've got, and thankfully he's ours already.

[Kvarme Ate My Food]

Temporarily, and then the vermin sell the club for a billion quid to somebody insanely rich and we get back on track again. With a brand spanking new stadium.

 

it won't get built. But if it does, it'll cost a fortune, and probably won't get filled.