FA Cup - Chelsea - Home fixture again

[Greenoak]

makes me sick that they have a home draw again.

 

It just does not sit with the law of averages.

 

Every other draw should be away.

 

Not only are they always at home but always easy draws as well.

 

This is their fixtures for last 3 years

 

2005

R3 - Home to Sc***horp

R4 - Home to Birmingham

R5 - Away to Newcastle This was their last away fixture.

 

2006 - Every possible game at home

R3 - Home to Huddersfield

R4 - Home to Everton

R5 - Home to Colchester

QF - Home to Newcash

 

2007 - 2 homes out of 2 so far

R3 - Home to Macclesfield

R4 - Home to Notts Forest

 

Just makes unreal reading

[Ostrich Man]

Roman = Head Lizard??

[cymrococh]

your conspiracy theory might make sense if they'd won it every year.

[Bailo]

2006 - Every possible game at home

R3 - Home to Huddersfield

R4 - Home to Everton

R5 - Home to Colchester

QF - Home to Newcash

Who did they go out to that year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mondavi]

makes me sick that they have a home draw again.

 

It just does not sit with the law of averages.

 

Every other draw should be away.

 

Not only are they always at home but always easy draws as well.

 

This is their fixtures for last 3 years

 

2005

R3 - Home to Sc***horp

R4 - Home to Birmingham

R5 - Away to Newcastle This was their last away fixture.

 

2006 - Every possible game at home

R3 - Home to Huddersfield

R4 - Home to Everton

R5 - Home to Colchester

QF - Home to Newcash

 

2007 - 2 homes out of 2 so far

R3 - Home to Macclesfield

R4 - Home to Notts Forest

 

Just makes unreal reading

 

I once witnessed 17 reds in a row on a vegas roulette wheel. In reality, given that each draw is unrelated to another, there is always a 50-50 chance of home or away, and therefore it aint all that strange on what is effectively a small sample.

 

 

good fortune maybe, but not really a shock. could be a fix though

[Coyler]

Yeah, but it's all about consecutive draws, is it not?

 

If it can be assumed that it's 50-50 in the first place, the odds on getting a home draw might be 1/2 but the odds on getting two home draws in a row are 1/4, three homes in a row 1/8, four homes in a row 1/16, etc.

 

Humourously, this means that the odds on getting "every other draw away", .i. Home-Away-Home-Away-Home-Away-Home-Away-Home are exactly the same weighty odds (1/2^9) as Home-Home-Home-Home-Home-Home-Home-Home-Home.

[Mondavi]

Yeah, but it's all about consecutive draws, is it not?

 

If it can be assumed that it's 50-50 in the first place, the odds on getting a home draw might be 1/2 but the odds on getting two home draws in a row are 1/4, three homes in a row 1/8, four homes in a row 1/16, etc.

 

Humourously, this means that the odds on getting "every other draw away", .i. Home-Away-Home-Away-Home-Away-Home-Away-Home are exactly the same weighty odds (1/2^9) as Home-Home-Home-Home-Home-Home-Home-Home-Home.

 

 

yeah, it always does my head in this argument. Whereas you'd say, that out of 8 draws they should only get 4 at home, there's actually no logical reason for that, as the draws are totally independent events, with the same odds for home or away. 8 homes is as likely as 4 of each or 8 aways.

[Cobs]

it's called the 'luck of the draw' and seeing as we are now out - who gives a schit?

[Knox_Harrington]

it's called the 'luck of the draw' and seeing as we are now out - who gives a schit?

And for that matter went out at home.

[surf]

yeah, it always does my head in this argument. Whereas you'd say, that out of 8 draws they should only get 4 at home, there's actually no logical reason for that, as the draws are totally independent events, with the same odds for home or away. 8 homes is as likely as 4 of each or 8 aways.

 

Not completely. If you look at a run of four game the options are as followed:

 

4 home games

H H H H

 

3 home games

H H H A

H H A H

H A H H

A H H H

 

2 home games

H H A A

H A A H

A A H H

A H A H

A H H A

H A H A

 

1 home game

H A A A

A H A A

A A H A

A A A H

 

All away

A A A A

 

So there are 16 options, yet only 1 option gives 4 home games, that a 1 in 16 chance, about 6%. There are 6 options for 2 home games, that's about 38%.

 

 

The odds on Chelsea's 8 home games and 1 away game is around 2%.

[Cobs]

And for that matter went out at home.

 

damn our luck!!!!!!!!!

[Will]

Not completely. If you look at a run of four game the options are as followed:

 

4 home games

H H H H

 

3 home games

H H H A

H H A H

H A H H

A H H H

 

2 home games

H H A A

H A A H

A A H H

A H A H

A H H A

H A H A

 

1 home game

H A A A

A H A A

A A H A

A A A H

 

All away

A A A A

 

So there are 16 options, yet only 1 option gives 4 home games, that a 1 in 16 chance, about 6%. There are 6 options for 2 home games, that's about 38%.

The odds on Chelsea's 8 home games and 1 away game is around 2%.

That would only be true if the events were dependent rather than independent. Each round there is a 50-50 chance of being drawn at home or away. End of.

[surf]

Yup, every round there's a 50/50 chance of a home game or an away game.

 

My example is based on four games.

Each of those sequences are as likely as each other, so H H H H is as likely as H H A A.

 

But seeing as there are 6 sequences that lead to two home and two away games that's a more likely outcome than all the games at home or all the games away.

[Doyler3000]

Yup, every round there's a 50/50 chance of a home game or an away game.

 

My example is based on four games.

Each of those sequences are as likely as each other, so H H H H is as likely as H H A A.

 

But seeing as there are 6 sequences that lead to two home and two away games that's a more likely outcome than all the games at home or all the games away.

 

 

He's right ya know

[Mondavi]

That would only be true if the events were dependent rather than independent. Each round there is a 50-50 chance of being drawn at home or away. End of.

 

 

which is where most people fall down - especially when they're in vegas playing roulette ! I think it was at 9 reds when I first saw, and I stood watching as the crowd grew stronger and stronger. obviously it was going to go black at some point soon, but it took 9 more rolls, and the banker was raking it in. And that's why you can't apply simple "laws of averages" to independent random events.

 

this thread would have been much simpler if it had been titled "chelsea fix cup draw"

[Guest Scot]

It's true that after 9 reds the chances of the next one going red are 50/50, but the chances of 10 consecutive reds are not 50/50 as a consecutive sequence implies dependence.

[Mondavi]

It's true that after 9 reds the chances of the next one going red are 50/50, but the chances of 10 consecutive reds are not 50/50 as a consecutive sequence implies dependence.

 

correct, but the odds of 5 reds and 5 blacks are not 50/50 either, which was the point being made.

[£440,000]

If they get to the final and the FA announce it's to be played at Stamford Bridge, then maybe you'll be onto something.

[Andy @ Allerton]

If they get to the final and the FA announce it's to be played at Stamford Bridge, then maybe you'll be onto something.

 

It will be played at Wembley - but that'll be Chelsea's new Ground by then

[surf]

It's true that after 9 reds the chances of the next one going red are 50/50, but the chances of 10 consecutive reds are not 50/50 as a consecutive sequence implies dependence.

 

Exactly.

[Guest Scot]

correct, but the odds of 5 reds and 5 blacks are not 50/50 either, which was the point being made.

 

Actually the probability of 5 reds and 5 blacks would be 1, wouldn't it? That would mean that the chances of pulling red or black is 50/50. If you wanted an alternate sequence of red/black/red etc...then again it would imply dependence.

[Mondavi]

Actually the probability of 5 reds and 5 blacks would be 1, wouldn't it? That would mean that the chances of pulling red or black is 50/50. If you wanted an alternate sequence of red/black/red etc...then again it would imply dependence.

 

 

there is absolutely no dependence when talking about a roulette wheel or about fa cup draws. that's the point. I'm not talking about text book statistical probabilities, but about real world independent events. a series of either of these real life events has absolutely no implied dependence as far as I can see. Just because they are similar events, with similar names, they are entirely independent of one another aren't they ?

 

sorry to be a dog with a bone, I just hate certain areas of text book maths where reliance is on assumptions of everything being equal, with no acceptance or aknowledgement of random events.

 

My point was that no matter if chelsea had been drawn at home the last 6 times, they were still as likely to be home in this draw as they were away. Same with the roulette - at every draw the odds for red and black are equal, no matter the results of previous draws on that or any other table. A mathemtician sitting down and discussing a series of 10 draws, and their likely outcome, will always come out with the bog standard result, based on everything being equal.

 

This could yet be a candidate for most boring, pointless, ANALytical thread ever - but I have nowt much better to do at the moment

Edited January 10, 2007 by Mondavi

[_00_deathscar]

This could yet be a candidate for most boring, pointless, ANALytical thread ever - but I have nowt much better to do at the moment bleh.gif

 

You could always go into the Liverpool forum and discuss the Arsenal games

[Mondavi]

You could always go into the Liverpool forum and discuss the Arsenal games

 

 

have been, despite my best efforts to stay away, it's absolute cisse in there.

[Guest Scot]

there is absolutely no dependence when talking about a roulette wheel or about fa cup draws. that's the point. I'm not talking about text book statistical probabilities, but about real world independent events. a series of either of these real life events has absolutely no implied dependence as far as I can see. Just because they are similar events, with similar names, they are entirely independent of one another aren't they ?

 

sorry to be a dog with a bone, I just hate certain areas of text book maths where reliance is on assumptions of everything being equal, with no acceptance or aknowledgement of random events.

 

My point was that no matter if chelsea had been drawn at home the last 6 times, they were still as likely to be home in this draw as they were away. Same with the roulette - at every draw the odds for red and black are equal, no matter the results of previous draws on that or any other table. A mathemtician sitting down and discussing a series of 10 draws, and their likely outcome, will always come out with the bog standard result, based on everything being equal.

 

This could yet be a candidate for most boring, pointless, ANALytical thread ever - but I have nowt much better to do at the moment

 

 

I know, mate. I guess what I'm saying is that the chances of 6 consecutive home draws are a good deal smaller than the chances of one, specific home draw. That they have 6 home draws is surely therefore because they are f*cking cn*ts who are paying the FA to put their balls in the fridge.