jimmylibel

Some suggestions on Twitter that Carvalho deal may not be happening/ hasn’t been agreed. Seen some mentions of Fulham looking for £15m and others saying he may want to hold off and assess his options in the summer.

It’s just code for ‘No one is in for him or he didn’t get an offer he likes.’

Everton paying loan fee and 100% of his wages apparently, while Crystal Palace were only offering to cover 85% of his wages.

Isak supposedly spotted in London this weekend amid speculation about a move to Arsenal. Zakaria to Juventus seems to be done.

If Mane is going, Origi, Minamino and possibly Firmino available, wouldn’t surprise me at all if we were after another versatile forward such as Nkunku. Seen some talk along the lines of us wanting in a forward this window so as to bed them in. Makes a lot of sense if we’re potentially talking wholesale changes

Juventus looking to get Zakaria (who we’ve been repeatedly linked with) signed this window, deal seems to be progressing but dependent on them offloading players. But Spurs may be about to help them out there for two deals.

Absolutely… but it’s Barcelona so…

In my desperate search of more Diaz related content I stumbled across a podcast with Duncan Castles (I know, I know but I figured with his ties he might have some useful connections in Portugal at least ). Anyway he went into a bit of detail, all of which should be taken with a hefty pinch of salt but… - At the outset of the window we told Porto we were only going to offer €40m guaranteed. - This left door open for Spurs who saw opportunity and agreed terms with player having been led to believe he was going to them. - We then came back in with the increased offer which included easier to achieve €15m bonus payments. - Spurs annoyed with Jorge Mendes and Gestifute they think they were led on just to encourage a bigger bid. - We expect to recuperate €40m from two player sales with us in ‘advanced discussions’ for transfers and he specifically mentioned Phillips, Origi and Minamino.

Last post in that thread is fantastic

Aubameyang being linked with a loan move to Barcelona… but they’ll only be able to do that if they shift Aubameyang’s mate, Dembele (who they are still trying to force out). Not that long ago when it was being suggested Arsenal would be well placed to sign Dembele if he left Barcelona because of his connection with Aubameyang. **** Burnley in for Dutch striker and Liverpool fan Weghorst from Wolfsburg.

Think he’d been on loan. But yeah it wasn’t exactly going to be the most expensive transfer ever. I think there was a story we valued him at £3m and Leicester wanted £7m… but I may be well off. Oh look absolutely it was one of those where we should thank our lucky stars situations… but he was a player we were seriously linked with who went on to be quality.

Interesting. I always thought we were just lowballing Leicester on that one. But that makes sense as he didn’t seem to be in the conversation the following season at all.

It’s not just between the clubs those conversations happen though. The agents will be keeping the other parties (particularly if they have a preference) informed. More than likely personal terms were informally agreed with all potential bidders long before the actual transfer offers were submitted. Some are suggesting we were Diaz’s choice but if we didn’t come to the table he was still going to move. I also wonder if we sometimes are happy for the ‘terms to be set’ by other clubs so we don’t get strung along etc. There are certain similarities here with how the deal for Ox went down - Chelsea have bid accepted, allows us to match that figure and player then gets his preferred move. Admittedly there were more specific circumstances at play in that deal though (strained relations with Arsenal) which aren’t a factor here.

And Chilwell.

Could be that the Mancs started taking a firm interest too. Or maybe the situation with Minamino/ Origi is more advanced than we’ve been led to believe and that’s enabling us to do this now.

Well, there’s a few that come to mind, (although ‘ace’ is open to interpretation)… Vidic, Evra, Malouda, B. Fernandes, Dani Alves, Ruben Dias, Goretzka, Zielinski, Diego Costa, De Bruyne, Kimpbembe, Sanchez, Vicinius Jnr, Tevez, Dele Alli (for a while) and Aguero.

Some suggestions floating around that interview may have cost him the job. It came as a ‘surprise’ to their board some reporting.

Was thinking that too. You now have two clubs in the bottom three who will have managers with significant track records of grinding results out, as well as Newcastle who will more than likely add some extra quality signings before the window closes. Everton are currently 4 points clear of Newcastle. Their next two league games are big six pointers - Newcastle away, followed by Leeds at home.

The Barcelona and Dembele stuff is nuts. Left out of their squad for their game tonight and telling him he won’t play for the rest of the season to try to get him to move this window instead of seeing out his contract. Something which is against the rules per the Spanish equivalent of the PFA. Hard to believe the way they have been treating their players over the course of the last 12 months… I think if Dembele goes that will be their four highest earners from this time last year they’ll have forced out, with several others having to agree to reduced terms. Yet Barcelona continuing to be linked with some big name players, especially those who may be available on a Bosman - but also, madly, Haaland.

Seen some speculation that the shortlist now is Rooney, Lampard and Fabio Cannavaro. Some reports from Italy he had a long interview with them earlier today.

The poor kid.

Floats… So the new stadium going to be made of wood too? Great to see them embracing their heritage.

January is a harder market, but I think the point that is often forgotten in these discussions is that all transfers are three way negotiations - buying club, selling club and player. I suspect that often it can be the player themselves that makes things a little more difficult in the winter window. Some don’t want to be moving mid season and some don’t want to limit their options - more clubs may be in for them in the summer. For example Zakaria is being widely touted as being available for something in the region of €7m - but if he chooses to move now the deal he gets may be smaller than if he signs on a free, especially in terms of signing bonus. However in terms of the old chestnut about lack of value in the Jan window, I’m not sure that really is true… or at least to not an extent that it would be a barrier. Yes, some clubs won’t release players in Jan because they need them and some may demand a premium… but I’m not really sure prices really go down if you wait until the summer. A good example there is VVD. He wouldn’t have been any cheaper. I doubt Konate would have cost us much more last Jan either - although he wasn’t fit which I suspect also impacted our position. In fairness though, a factor that does impact transfer fees is time remaining on contract, so usually that means if you wait til the summer then you are offsetting half a season. But on the flip side you have the mitigating factor of a player ageing by half a year too, which is another variable in the calculations. In relation to players not being available cos clubs won’t release them a supposed example of players being more available than we might think was Sarr… there have been strong suggestions we had a deal lined up for him last winter but backed out as the funding wasn’t forthcoming. That was despite Watford pushing to get promoted back to the Premier League and the financial difference that makes. Another factor to be considered is that a some players also have release clauses (especially those in Spain), which are usually as active in Jan as in summer. Of course some of those may not be realistic. Diaz supposedly has a release of €70m but Porto have indicated they would take less now - something in the region of €55-60m I think I’ve seen in some of the reports linking him to us. My suspicion in relation to our lack of spending is that we have very, very defined lists of targets including fall back options. As our resources are very tightly managed I think we do put all our eggs in getting our number 1 choice. Sometimes that may also impact on other deals for other positions too. But unfortunately that approach doesn’t always come off and then we do turn to option 2. I can’t say this for sure but I suspect that may have been one of the factors in play last Jan and in relation to the Konate deal. I think our No 1 target may have been Upamecano, with Konate as our close second preference. Upamecano only declared he was going to Bayern after the window closed last Jan. Another option 1 signing was probably Werner, but he wasn’t willing to wait so we moved to option 2, Jota. I can see merit to this approach, it obviously worked very well for VVD. But I think it’s risky too and leaves us exposed, as it did last Jan. However, ultimately the need for this way of approaching the market comes back to underinvestment in the squad from FSG. Are they being prudent? Yes, but possibly too prudent. Does that prudence come at a cost? Also yes. There is an opportunity cost too which I don’t think we pay enough credence to as a club - or if we do we haven’t been acting like it. We have one of the greatest managers in the world and we have a spine of players at or near their absolute peak. There is a limit on how long that window lasts. I would suggest we have not made the most of the last two seasons because our prudent outlook hasn’t included that factor in the calculations. We could and should be pushing on, but we’re not even fully maintaining. That cost us last season and I think it has more than likely cost us the league this season too. Being vulnerable to injuries in defence last season was obvious, as was (to a lesser extent) being vulnerable in midfield this season. There is also no real justification for knowing that you’re going to be missing two of your most important attackers for most of January before the season starts and not taking any steps to mitigate against that problem. Sorry I clearly had a lot to get off my chest So overall Jan might be a slightly more limited market but the biggest limitations are the ones we are applying to ourselves I think. And realistically we are running out of time to resolve that and stay competing at the very top.

I thought this was one of their sticks to beat Rafa though? Falling out with two of their ‘best players’ (supposedly Allan was annoyed with him too)

Wonder if there are some problems behind the scenes? Some suggestions that there was a falling out between Bielsa and Phillips. They also don’t seem as cohesive this season.